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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

Monopoly Money continues to flow...

Reported a few minutes ago that the Cubs are close to signing Soriano 8 years for 135 Mil. Good golly miss molly!

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Go directly to jail
and they are not done. They still are looking at a FA starting pitcher. Hope they do not sign a Giants FA because we probably will not receive worthwhile compensation.

For that money he should play every inning of every game at Ruthian level. Do not succumb to the pressure Sabean.

by wilriv21 on Nov 19, 2006 12:52 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
3 years / $13 M for utility players
4 years / $16M for middle relievers
8 years/ $135M for super stars

The Randy Winn deal is starting to make sense.
That means we are down the rabbit hole, Alice.

The Giants should "steal" Bonds for 1 year/$14M
and Durham 2 years/ $20M while the getting is still good.

Have Frandsen play 3B, Alphonszo catch, and Linden start RF.

Save money for the farm system.

Maybe sign a Japanese pitcher or two.

Please no Carlos Lee, "DH in training" body types.

Please no Pierre or Roberts or Matthews.

I could handle an Aurlia or a Borowski.

If the Giants were going to spend crazy money,
I would go with the aforementioned, plus
Drew, Schmidt, and Garciapara.

Humm Baby!

by Kid Fresh on Nov 19, 2006 1:05 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
My nominations for thee "most sensible off-season signings"
  1. Detroit kept first baseman Sean Casey, agreeing to a $4 million, one-year contract.
  2. St. Louis retained Scott Spiezio, agreeing to a $4.5 million, two-year contract with the reserve infielder and outfielder.
  3.  The Mets and backup infielder Damion Easley agreed to an $850,000, one-year deal.
=

To translate these contracts to the Giants universe, how about:

  1. Shea- $4M, one year
  2. Aurilia- $4.5, two-year
  3. Feliz- $850,000
Humm Baby!

by Kid Fresh on Nov 19, 2006 1:17 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Feliz's deal is for 2 years, no?
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 19, 2006 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Ummm.. the Sean Casey signing wasn't even sensible in this market. Casey is a injury-prone first baseman with a weak stick.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 19, 2006 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
$4 mill for a high average guy like casey is a very good deal.  sure, he may be injury prone, but if he goes down the tigers can be done with him at the end of the year and they're only out $4 mill.  if he plays to his potential then he's a downright steal in this market.  this is the kind of contract the giants dream about.  fills a hole and leaves lots of money for other free agents.  and when you have as many holes as the giants do this offseason...

by MayDay on Nov 19, 2006 5:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
I guess I just don't consider adding a guy with OPSes of 68, 107, and 87 in the past few years AT FIRST BASE to be filling a hole.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 19, 2006 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
3 year OPS+, PA, Salary (Age):

Soriano 115, 687, 8 Year $135 mil (31)
Casey 115, 553, 1 Year $4 mil (32)

Do the math.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 20, 2006 9:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
That's not a fair comparison, Soriano plays 2B.  Or used to.  Poorly.

by zenbitz on Nov 20, 2006 10:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Okay, I messed up reading the data and counted each half of his awful 2006 as one year. That said, that 3-year OPS spread is almost entirely dependent on a career 2004 that he hasn't approached in the two years following it. Add that he's struggled with injuries since then, is on the wrong side of 30, and plays first base and I'd bet him to hit more like a middle infielder for the rest of his career.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 20, 2006 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
First off, I know you are a sane poster, so I doubt you are arguing that Soriano's  contract is anything better than ridculous.  Just that Casey is not a good deal at $4 million.

But Casey has a large sample size.  111 OPS+ for 9 full time seasons.  So that takes away the aberation effect of his big '04 season.  His medium career OPS + is 104.  Okay, so unless he has some particular injury which is rendering more and more ineffective, I would say 104 is a reasonable, if conservative, prediction for him.  He is only 32 years old and has had a 114, 119, 136 and 142 OPS+ in the past.

$ 4 million is a good deal for him, even as a  1Bman.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 20, 2006 1:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
It's not the money that makes it a bad deal, IMO, it's the fact that Casey is a below-average hitter at first base (even if he maintained his career median despite the aging effect) and the Tigers definitely need to improve this off-season if they want to contend again. Signing Casey is just treading water.

If somebody had signed Casey to that deal as a stopgap or something while waiting for a prospect down on the farm and not worrying about contending in that season I'd have no problem. Hell, I wouldn't have minded the Giants signing him; he's not an above-average player and I'm tired of our unending supply of powerless first baseman, but it's not nearly as bad as the other deals being tossed around.

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 20, 2006 1:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
And, yeah, the Soriano deal is totally absurd. One-year contracts like the Casey one are pretty much no-risk, it's just not the right situation for it in the Tigers' case.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 20, 2006 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Call me crazy, but the market can't keep going like this. The available talent is crappy, but teams don't have enough available payroll to keep this up. The elite FA's will likely remain inflated no matter when, but I have to believe that the middle will start to drop out as teams run out of budget space.

And it's not like the Giants have anything to lose by waiting the market out.

by Bhaakon on Nov 19, 2006 4:00 PM PST reply actions  

YOU'RE CRAZY!
Hey, at least I didn't call you Shirley.
I've grown up a lot since before dinner, when we last talked.

by groug on Nov 19, 2006 7:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: YOU'RE CRAZY!
Excellent post.

The money will dry up after a few more elite signings (Matsuzsaka, Lee, Drew, Zito, Schmidt).  If the Giants hold out, a decent starter (Suppan, Lily, Padilla, etc..) could fall into reasonable territory, let alone the Durhams and Aubrey Huffs of the world.

They have nothing to lose by waiting.  Also, I don't think Bonds will be willing to sign until close to the Dec. 7th arbitration date.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 20, 2006 10:03 AM PST up reply actions  

The Giants provide evidence to the Contrary
Yeah, things get cheaper...right. The Giants waited out the market last year and signed Matt Morris, stud, to that bargain basement deal.

Had Sabean been a little more aggressive earlier, he would have spent less and got the better pitcher, in my opinion -- Loaiza.

The feeling here is that there is a frenzy for the top players, but when those are gone, there are still a mess of teams that have to pull the trigger on SOMETHING.

That's when chumps start getting OTHERWORLDLY money.

But, I suppose, every year is different.

by Moggeee on Nov 20, 2006 1:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Giants provide evidence to the Contrary
The Giants didn't wait the market out at all last season, Morris signed in mid-December, that's right in the thich of the feeding frenzy.

The Angels waited the market out, and they were rewarded in mid-February when Jeff Weaver signed a one-year deal worth 9M. Granted, Weaver pitched like crap for them, but the fact remains that he was expected to sign a deal closer to 4 year and 40M.

by Bhaakon on Nov 20, 2006 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

You wait the market out and you get a Weaver
The Giants (and apparently the rest of the league) knew the Corn Flake Box that was Weaver, and signed Morris to avoid painting themselves into a corner with such dregs.

Loaiza signed a month before Morris. The Giants had waited, and the list of effective pitchers was getting pretty thin.

The only saving grace in the disastrous Angel strategy was the one-year deal -- expensive, but over quickly.

by Moggeee on Nov 20, 2006 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You wait the market out and you get a Weaver
That's ridiculous.

The Weaver signing was 100 times better than the Morris deal.

by Bhaakon on Nov 20, 2006 2:43 PM PST up reply actions  

You don't give him enough credit
Why stop there?

Weaver cures cancer, sweeps Republicans out of Congress.

by Moggeee on Nov 20, 2006 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Giants provide evidence to the Contrary
I seem to recall that Sabean went hard after Loaiza, and Loaiza turned down the Giants to sign with the A's (possibly for the same, or even slightly less, money than the Giants were offering).

by hometownboy on Nov 21, 2006 2:10 AM PST up reply actions  

Sometimes hard is not enough
A little more money (read: Matt Morris money) often makes the difference between a nice catch and the fish that got away. No matter Loaiza's preferences, a few million bucks always trumps a player's prejudices.

The time-honored way to beat tight-fisted Billy Beane and the Oakland A's is to outbid them. Sabean lost this battle.

And the frequent winner Beane wins again.

by Moggeee on Nov 21, 2006 2:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sometimes hard is not enough
There's no way either Weaver or Loaiza is better than Morris.  

Loaiza had that one good season with the White Sox then lucked into pitching at RFK Stadium which was a huge pitchers park that season and Oakland helps too, plus particularly helps RHP by depressing LHH HR power.  ERA on the road the past three seasons:  5.00, 4.71, 6.08.  He's a Tomko at best, variably good when he's on, but mainly mediocre.  I was SOOOOOOOOO glad when the A's won the bidding for him over us, it was the feeling I had when I learned the Giants released Neifi the first time (then ruined by signing him to a contract...)

Weaver I've never understood why people think he's so good.  He's not an elite pitcher, which is how some people see him, he's been lucky pitching for two extreme pitcher's parks, Detroit and LA.  His road ERA the past 4 years have consistently been a mid-4 or worse, and 6 of his 8 career seasons plus over 4 ERA in 7 of 8.  He's a nice pitcher but even over a half season, he's very rarely dominated.

Morris, even with surgery and other injuries along the way, he dominated in the first half of 2005, just months after shoulder surgery, he was an elite pitcher for half a season, 3.10 ERA, at age 30, which is better than any half season that Jeff Weaver has ever had in 8 seasons, 16 different half seasons, the best he could do was his great year in 2002, with a 3.43 ERA, he had only 4 under 4.00, only that one under 3.50.  

And I'm not even counting all the seasons Morris had before his arm surgery when he was arguably one of the top pitchers in the majors - I know those days are gone and he's not the fire-baller he once was, he's now a pitcher.

Now you can argue the horrible numbers Morris had in the second half of 2005, but given that he had surgery just the November before, he most probably tired out from lack of physical stamina because he could not really start working out because of the shoulder surgery until just before spring training started.  You don't go normally from being so dominating to so hittable in the same season unless there's a physical reason.  The same thing appeared to happen this season, he was dominating from mid-May to mid-July, but then again took a big dive, which was reported related to broken ribs - I would still like to know where those came from, as his performance suggests it started in July, not August as they had reported.

I wholeheartedly believe that Morris is a better pitcher than either Loaiza or Weaver, the major question is whether Morris can be healthy enough to prove that.  I think taking on that risk was and is worth it, better to take a chance on excellence than to settle for proven mediocrity that is Loaiza and Weaver.

I'm bored, how about you?

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 21, 2006 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
"The available talent is crappy" - yea and verily it truly is. The result of over-expan$ion.

The talent pool has been crappy for the past 5-8 years.

Contract(shrink) each league by one team in year one, and the following year do it again.

Redistribute the players, if wanted.

Listen to the Union moan, groan, roar, etc.

Better quality baseball the result.

by rcrusoe on Nov 19, 2006 4:29 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
good idea (who needs the devil rays anyway?)  unfortunately it will never happen.

by MayDay on Nov 19, 2006 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
The crappy FA pool has nothing to do with expansion;  the available pool of talent has grown faster than the number of teams in the league.

The FA pool sucks because teams are more willing to sign their young stars to extensions in exchange for buying out their first couple years of free agency (I suspect) and FA's are demanding longer contracts (this one I'm pretty sure of). The result is that players are hitting the market the first time at a later age, and not hitting it again until they're about ready to retire.

by Bhaakon on Nov 19, 2006 7:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Which means you have to start drafting position players...

by Skaldheim on Nov 20, 2006 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Don't think of it like that.  The FA market is extra sucky this year, why?  Because the Giants need to sign 10 FAs.

by zenbitz on Nov 20, 2006 10:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Turn that equation around
I think the FA market is sucky this year because the Giants FED 10 players into it.

by Moggeee on Nov 20, 2006 11:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monopoly Money continues to flow...
Lots of good posts; it made me play the "what would [insert player from past here] be worth today?"

But not in the usual way, in which we wonder what Reggie Jackson and Joe Morgan would command; instead I wonder what Claudell Washington and Joel Youngblood would command.

Mark DeRosa money, at least.

to quote Charlie Brown: sigh

Fred McGriff gave this message his highest endorsement

by VidaWantsYourCar on Nov 20, 2006 3:45 PM PST reply actions  

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