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Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions

So rotoworld.com has this list of predictions regarding all of the top free agents this offseason:

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=26761

They have the Giants getting:
Bengie Molina (Blue Jays) - Prediction: Giants - one year, $4 million
Sean Casey (Tigers) - Prediction: Giants - two years, $13 million
Ronnie Belliard (Cardinals) - Prediction: Giants - two years, $8.5 million
Pedro Feliz (Giants) - Prediction: Giants - three years, $18 million
Barry Bonds (Giants) - Prediction: Giants - one year, $10 million
Jose Guillen (Nationals) - Prediction: Giants - one year, $5 million
Jeff Suppan (Cardinals) - Prediction: Giants - four years, $36 million
Danys Baez (Braves) - Prediction: Giants - three years, $12 million

Obviously this is just rampant speculation on their part, with little real insider knowledge, but would you be happy with this potential lineup/pitching staff?  If they really did make all these moves, getting mostly veterans with short-term deals to patch their numerous holes, would the Giants be competitive?  Or more importantly, is it prudent to continue to put off the rebuilding process with these types of deals?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I'd take both Guillen and Molina at those prices.  I'd take an axe to the forehead before I take Suppan at that price.  Frandsen will take an axe to Sabean if they sign Belliard at that price.  And all of us should just take an axe to Danys Baez now, just in case.
"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Nov 13, 2006 10:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
What he said.
Waiting for Nate, Marcus, Nick, & Emmanuel

by Lyle on Nov 14, 2006 6:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Hey, who axed you?
Never mind whatever I do!!! Fan is my tresure!!!

by leftymalo on Nov 14, 2006 8:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No one.
I just went ahead and made an axe of myself.
"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Nov 14, 2006 12:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
If they signed Feliz to that deal I would raid his house
Sabean Trek: The Search for 100 Losses

by ToddLindenHasAPosse on Nov 13, 2006 10:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I'd have to say definitely not happy.  Actually this team might push me over the edge into the tempting and apparent bliss of being an A's fan (cheap beer and they win games!) In reverse order of revulsion:

Feliz signed for 3 yrs 18 mil.  If Brian Sabean were to do this, I'd contribute towards putting a contract out on his life.  

Suppan for 4years, 36 mil.  At least Matt Morris was once a top notch pitcher.  This for freaking Suppan.  I'd rather watch Misch lose games at least with a rookie you figure the team can put the money towards a new player.  This is just bad.  

Ronnie Belliard 2 yrs, 8.5 mil.  Either we resign Ray, grab Richie for a year, or put the Kid in at 2nd.  This is like trying to decide between the hot chick who is kind of a bitch, and the really cool chick who is kind of ugly and opting for a third chick who is kind of ugly and kind of a bitch.  

Bengie Molina.  I guess I don't understand why his name keeps coming up.  He is a hacker with pop that he put up in Toronto and he doesn't have much for an arm.  We already have a hacker with pop and not much arm working for 330k per year.  Plus ours has a set of teeth that look like that dude Jaws from the 70's James Bond movies.  And he used to be a boxer so he's a good guy to have around in a brawl.

The other signings are not too bad.  The Casey sign is risky, but there's just a chance that Casey was put on Earth to hit at AT&T park (he's put up huge numbers in a decent sample size so far) and besides, what other 1B options are there.  Guillen for a 1 year show me what you can do contract is decent.  Baez isn't that appealing but we have no one to even think about closing games and the options are slim.  

However, I'd be very happy to see B-Squared back in the city by the bay for one last hurrah at the reasonable price of 10 per year.    

 

by orangeandblackattack on Nov 13, 2006 11:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I would be neither happy nor surprised in the least.

The only deal I really wouldn't like would be Suppan, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.

That Molina contract would be fine, but I bet he holds out for more years.
I'd rather see Linden or Lewis than Guillen, whose attitude I wouldn't want on a young team.

It sure wouldn't leave much money to play with in 07.

Pedro Feliz reminds me of a corvair. The Dodgers are evil.

by irwin on Nov 13, 2006 11:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
If we sign Jeff freaking Suppan for four years I will light myself on fire.  Signing Belliard would be an absolute waste of money.  I'll take Guillen for one year and the Casey deal.  I think he'd do well at Pac Bell.
"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Nov 13, 2006 11:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I have threatened self-immolation before, but I never follow through.  If we can get Casey, Bonds, Guillen and Molina, and I would rather see Aurilia and Frandsen in the infield, rather than Belliard.  

by out machine on Nov 14, 2006 10:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Fireworks Display in the Distance
Hey, you two. There's a support group for your self-destructive affliction. But if you must go through with it, have enough presence of mind to jump off the Bay Bridge while aflame.

It adds interest to the view from the ballyard when the Giants are getting drubbed.

by Moggeee on Nov 14, 2006 12:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Fireworks Display in the Distance
And while you're at it, make sure someone video tapes it and puts it on YouTube.

by Snof on Nov 14, 2006 1:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
from that deal id take Bonds, Casey, Guillen, and possible Fleas depending on what our plan is with Frandsen
"Do you know what F.P. stands for?" "Fuckin Pimp"

by sfgiants114 on Nov 13, 2006 11:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I would not be happy with this batch of free agents, but I must give the author credit: not one of these eight deals made me think, "Oh, please... Sabean would NEVER do that!"

I don't think Soriano or Lee will be a good investment, but would you rather pay one of them $19M a year or pay Feliz, Suppan and Baez $19M a year? Or light yourself on fire?

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Nov 13, 2006 11:34 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
You know that famous Vietnam picture of the monk? Slap a baseball cap on that sucker.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 13, 2006 11:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Yeah, Jake, that's the picture I thought of too. Apparently there were monks in the 60's who were Giants fans and had perfected the ability to travel to the future and see our current sad state of affairs.
Waiting for Nate, Marcus, Nick, & Emmanuel

by Lyle on Nov 14, 2006 6:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I was thinking the of the guy in "Airplane" who lights himself on fire rather than hear Ted's war stories.  That's what it truly means to be a Giant's fan in this Sabean era.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 14, 2006 8:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Can we put a moratorium on this "Sabean Era is Hell" revisionism? Like, forever? Let's not forget he got us Schmidt for a (Vogel)song, LS Burks, and Nen, a-a-and he unleashed the Mustache onto the baseball world.

by lunaticfridge on Nov 14, 2006 10:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
That's why I said "this" Sabean era.  1997-2002 good. 2003- Hell.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 14, 2006 11:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I wouldn't mind casey, but a trade for Burrell instead of course would be ideal.  Feliz at 6 million a year??? I hope Sabean isn't that dumb.  I hope any other interested team in the league isn't that dumb.

Akinori Iwamura anyone?  if not, (and probably not) Aurilia or Helms would do just fine.

Felix Rodriguez will never be forgiven.

by April3rdLifeBegins on Nov 13, 2006 11:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
As bad as these signings seem, I would not be surprised at all to see most of them happen. Sabes has shown a commitment to sink a lot of money into mediocre free agents rather than betting the house on one superstar as long as Barry is in the equation.

The good thing about this is that none of these signings really fit in the "new direction" plan (whatever that means), as it seems like most of these guys would just be stop-gaps so that we can field a team next year. That lineup and team would be lucky to win 70 games next year, so if thats what it comes down to, Sabes should be fired.

by joebirdie3 on Nov 14, 2006 12:12 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I have to agree, these predictions are frighteningly believable.

My only two quibles are Molina's contract length (Sabean would give him at least 2 and an option) and the enormousness of Suppan's deal (no GM is that stupid, right? Right?!).

by Bhaakon on Nov 14, 2006 1:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
As far as accuracy, I think Rotoworld has made outstanding predictions.

Agree about Molina.  I figure three years.  Otherwise the predicted contracts aren't as bad as my guesses (except for Feliz). Casey, Belliard, Guillen and Bonds are short and almost reasonable.  Baez and Suppan are within market parameters and oh so Sabean.

Here were my cynical but realistic predictions:

Feliz 3 year $13 milllion
Durham 2 year $16 million
Bonds 1 year $11 million
Molina 3 year $16 million
Matthews 4 year $26 million
Aurilla 2 year $6.5 million
Lilly 3 year $21 million
Nomar 2 Year $15.5 million
Baez 3 Year $12 million
Stanton 2 Year $2.5 million

Aurilia is extranious but I'm guessing Sabean wants a veteran super-sub in there.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 14, 2006 8:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
These are a series of terrible deals, each one more frightening than the last.

Sounds about right.

Visit my blog and die happy.

by Salemicus on Nov 14, 2006 4:47 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Tonight's Matsuzaka announcement will officially ring the dinner bell on an absolutely astoundingly absurd free agent season.  From the rumors out there there aren't going to be a lot of short and cheap bargains. People are talking about 9-10 million for Suppan and Lilly and 7-8 for Randy Wolf. It's gonna get ugly fast.  And I still think Bonds will end up with at least 14 mil from somebody.

by Roger on Nov 14, 2006 5:26 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Bengie Molina (Blue Jays) - $4 million
Sean Casey (Tigers) - $6.5 million
Ronnie Belliard (Cardinals) - $4.25 million
Pedro Feliz (Giants) - $6 million
Barry Bonds (Giants) - $10 million
Jose Guillen (Nationals) - $5 million
Jeff Suppan (Cardinals) - $6.5 million
Danys Baez (Braves) - $4 million

Is it just me, or do those numbers add up to more than the $45 million magic figure?  PHEW!

I blame F.P. Santangelo, while F.P. somehow blames Kuiper.

by WalrusMan on Nov 14, 2006 8:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Not to worry, Walrus... Sabean will be sure to backload the deals so that we'll owe Feliz, Suppan and Baez over $30M in 2009, while we're paying another $10M in deferred money to Casey and Bonds.

Get me off this crazy thing!

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Nov 14, 2006 9:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Have you guys read the article? This author put in a crapload of time (hey, I bet he gets PAID for his writing!)and it is a pretty good reference point for the off-season.

Why we would go with Suppan over Lilly or Guillen over Burrell I don't understand. I like the idea of Casey and Bonds but if we get Baez I'll take a leave of absence from work, fly home, research the most likely neighborhood Sabean hangs his hat, patrol the area until there is a sighting, follow him to his favorite starbucks, then "accidently" spill a mocha latte on his head. five times.

Dodgers fans eat their young.

by redhornet78 on Nov 14, 2006 9:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
The problem with speculation of free agents is that it's hard to predict the nature of trades.  That is probably one of the main reasons why we see the Giants ending up with Guillen and not Burrell, because Burrell has to be traded for.

I think Suppan makes more sense than Lilly primarily because Lilly is left handed.  Having a rotation of three lefties (assuming Lowry and Sanchez are both part of that rotation) is like playing with fire.

As for the rest of the predictions: someone else here said it best: I may be disappointed by them, but none of them would surprise me the least.  As the majority as well, I like the Molina and Bonds contracts.  Baez and Suppan's contracts would be "okay" if they were each a year shorter (at least).  The 4M a year Baez takes in is about right for a closer that isn't quite a closer, as some relief pitchers get a lot more.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2006 10:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
If we resign Feliz, I'm becoming a Dodger fan. I'm serious.

Well no, I'm not. But damnit!

by Aadik on Nov 14, 2006 10:10 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I'm pretty sure even joking about joining the dark side is a capital offense.  Well, you should at least be banned for that.

by Snof on Nov 14, 2006 1:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
The likelyhood of those signings is what makes it so disturbing. I think there is a way to be competitive next season and still be 'building' from younger players... However, I don't see Sabean going that route. I think 'New Direction' just means more overpaid middle-aged mediocrity.

by mxmob33 on Nov 14, 2006 10:26 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Why would Sabean sign Baez, he failed at closer when the Dodger's desperately needed one and got him specifically to take over if Gagme was out.  At least given Sabean so credit, he hasn't gotten players who totally blown their chance to play, they might have been over the hill, but none that I can think of had abjectly failed the season before.

But the writer at least thought things out, and Baez would normally be a Sabean type of signing.

Nothing much more to add above other's rantings about the deals, other than:  Ewww!

Casey would be an upgrade over Hillenbrand and that looks about what Hillenbrand would get, so it is not horrible, plus by then either EME or Ishikawa should have proven whether they are ready or not for 1B.

Frandsen over Belliard, anyday.

We've taken too many crappy players from the Cards over the past couple of years, so I say stop the bleeding.

Go with as many one year deals you can get away with and spend the money next season on the good stuff.  I think Sabean is looking to Japan for his next closer, maybe not this season, but soon.

Get. Burrell. NOW!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 14, 2006 10:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Feliz 3/18 made me throw up a little in my mouth.

At least given Sabean so credit, he hasn't gotten players who totally blown their chance to play, they might have been over the hill, but none that I can think of had abjectly failed the season before.

Neifi Perez?  
Also check out JT Snow's stats with the angles.

by zenbitz on Nov 14, 2006 10:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Well, from my angle, I wouldn't call Snow's season a failure type of season, he had 17 HR, it was more a down year for him than anything, to my eye, not a total failure.  If it was after his 1994 season, then I would buy it.

You got me on Neifi though, forgot about him (would still like to forget about him :^).

Though, in my defense, the only reason you get Neifi is because you want great defense at SS plus OK enough offense for an 8th place hitter, and while he had a very poor offensive year in 2002, he still delivered the great defense so he wasn't a total loss.  Baez you only get to be a closer or maybe setup reliever and he failed both miserably, both with the Dodgers and the Braves, he was a total loss.

But I will concede Neifi and modify my statement to "normally Sabean don't pick up a total failure like Baez, at least for a prominent role like closer or any starting role."

I still think he's turning Japanese and getting a closer-type from there, or at least a good set-up guy.

Get. Burrell. NOW!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 14, 2006 12:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I suppose that's true, but Fonzie had certainly given warning signs, and was only a year removed from an absolutely brutal 2001 campaign that was every bit as bad as his Giants years. And Morris 2nd half of 2005 was avert your eyes stuff as well.

As for closer types, why not go back to the Giants' legacy well and grab Justin Speier, he's probably the best bullpen guy on the market this year.

by Roger on Nov 14, 2006 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Now that's a reliever I can get behind.  We totally missed out on the whole Speier brood, they have been a good set of pitchers, too bad we didn't keep him as a coach instead of letting him go to Colorado.

But in Fonzie's case, he unfortunately had a rebound, contract year before he signed, if I remember right, masking his decline a lot.  But yes, he certainly did have a lot of questions marks that unfortunately came true.

But Morris' 1st half of 2005 was as dominating as they come for someone who cannot strike out a lot and it made sense to me that he just ran out of steam because he had his surgery in Nov of the previous year, which meant 6-8 weeks of rest before he could start re-conditioning his arm, then spring training came up, so I thought he just ran out of steam and strength because he didn't have the whole off-season to keep his arm in good shape to last a whole season.  

Get. Burrell. NOW!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 14, 2006 2:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
That is a cherry pick (17 HR) if ever there was one.

Snow's line from 1996: .257  .327  .384.
In 155 games.  OPS+ of 81.  

That is utter and complete failure for a 1B - now admittedly, this was a down year.

And just to pile on, Neifi only gives you enough offense for an 8th place hitter if your team plays in AA.

by zenbitz on Nov 14, 2006 5:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Would I be happy?
yes
no
yes
no
yes
yes
NO
NO!
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 14, 2006 11:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Belliard is a poor man's Ray Durham, who himself is a poor man's Joe Morgan.

Assuming we don't re-sign Ray-Ray, Belliard is an OK substitute for the right money. He's got a bit of pop but limited range at 2B. Not much of an OBP either.

My main concern is that Belliard is listed at 5'8", 180, but i'd put him more like 5'7", 230. The guy is  rotund. Looks akin to a manatee on the bases. Not too good for a 32-year-old 2B sparkplug...more like a fireplug. That's also why he hits into a ton of GIDPs.

I can already hear his hammies snapping in the cold April evening air.

Of course, he's got the all-important, savvy WS experience. Even if he went 0-12.

by leewhee on Nov 14, 2006 11:49 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

the sad truth
at the trading deadline we could have turned schmidt and durham into a 5-6 real prospects.  We did nothing.  We still finished below 500.  now we have to make these type of signings just to put 9 guys on the field because none of our prospects (except maybe frandsen and linden) are good enough play in the majors.  If we made those trades we might have 2-3 more major league ready players (not necessarily stars, but not total jokes), and could sink serious money into 1-2 good players, instead of mid-level money into 5-6 mediocre players.
2002? I'm over it.

by wjackalope on Nov 14, 2006 12:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Well...
If you deal them away you won't really get the chance to sign them back the next year.  With Schmidt I wouldn't have minded a trade but with Durham I hope we can get him back for 2 years + option.
I blame F.P. Santangelo, while F.P. somehow blames Kuiper.

by WalrusMan on Nov 14, 2006 12:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: the sad truth
Exact-a-fuckin-mundo. The failure to get at least something in return for Schmidt (who was obviously going to walk) was a major mistake.

Hey, maybe the prospects we got back would have turned out to be nothing but at least we would have gotten something back.

I can't respect a team that wears teal and purple pinstripe jerseys.

by camwoody on Nov 14, 2006 2:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It still seems impossible
But on July 23, 2006 the Giants were, TRAGICALLY, in first place.

All hope of winning the division was CRUSHED by Aug. 10, but by then it was too late to do the deals.

I was for trading Durham and Schmidt at the deadline, this year and LAST.

by Moggeee on Nov 14, 2006 12:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
The scary thing is, I think Sabean will give Feliz a lot more than 3/$18.  I think it will be closer to 4/$28.  Proven run producer!  Count the RBIs!
If you whine about Liriano, I will .gif you.

by Fog City Blues on Nov 14, 2006 9:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
I think Sabean is prone to jumping the gun in order to get a guy under contract, but I don't think he's an idiot. Come on now, 4/$25 tops.
Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Nov 14, 2006 10:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Completely unfounded Rotoworld predictions
Come on now, 4/$25 tops.

A hometown "discount!"  Seriously, I think the Giants are blinded by his RBI totals, his power, his versatility, his good defense, and the fact that he's a known quantity.  That he consumes a frightening amount of outs isn't a big hang up in Sabean's eyes.

Ok, maybe the 4/$28 estimate is a bit too high.  Maybe today's Juan Pierre rumor ($10 million a year for Juan effing Pierre??) has my sense of the market all out of whack.  But I still think it will be more than 3/$18.

If you whine about Liriano, I will .gif you.

by Fog City Blues on Nov 14, 2006 10:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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