Wright
Today we look at Jamey Wright, in our series evaluating the pending free agents on the Giants.
Jamey Wright will not be back.
I'll be back on Monday with another in-depth look at a pending free agent.
But if we're talking a starter to fill out the rotation, it's worth wondering what direction the Giants are going to go in.
Locks:
Lowry
Cain
Morris
It?s worth noting that trying to fill out a rotation in October is useless. Trades happen, arbitration happens, and spring training invites surprise. Fun to think about, though....
In-house possibilities:
Sanchez
Lincecum
Hennessey
Correia
Sanchez would really have to pitch his way out of the opening day rotation. I wouldn?t be surprised if Lincecum verlandered his way into the rotation out of Scottsdale, even if at Sanchez?s expense.
Possible free agent targets:
Schmidt
Zit...
Possible realistic free agent targets:
Ted Lilly, who will get a lot more money than people expect (3/24, at least).
Miguel Batista
Greg Maddux
Jeff Suppan
Jaret Wright, if the Yankees don?t pick up his optahhahahhahah.....couldn?t keep a straight face there.
Woody Williams
Man, these guys are all 40 or bad or both.
Oooh, here?s someone under 30: Sidney Ponson.
Seriously, this is a wretched crop. Because of the wretchedness, there isn?t a team that?s going to want to trade whatever pitching they have. The only obvious pitcher I could even guess might be traded is Carlos Silva of the Twins.The only pitcher who might be undervalued on the free agent market is Vicente Padilla, who was an average pitcher in a launching pad, leading to a misleading ERA of 4.50. That?ll still get him a good-sized contract, but he?s my guy for now. I like Lilly, but he doesn?t just stand out in the second tier; he is the second tier, and that will get paid Matt Morris money.
A one-year deal to Maddux or Williams might be a nice stopgap move.
Your thoughts on the final piece of the rotation puzzle, at a ridiculously early stage....
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Re: Yes...
Re: Wright
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 8:21 AM PDT reply actions
Re: Wright
By E, though, so it's kind of an honor.
Re: Wright
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Wright
Re: Wright
by orangeandblackattack on Oct 13, 2006 8:28 AM PDT reply actions
a breakout season
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Wright
What an amazing dive his season took. Those first few starts he was the signing of the century. I remember the game Grant, GiantJim and I went to, Grant was taking back everything bad he said about him as he was dealing. Matheny said he had the best stuff on the team, and that was before the concussions!
What the hell happened? Was he just lucky and reverted back to his norm. Was the beaning of Giles and subsequnet shelling a confidence shaker of season-turning proportions?
I want answers, damn it!
Re: Wright
jesus
Re: Wright
Or get Matsuzaka.
Re: Wright
Re: Wright
- Is there room in our hearts for another SP named/nick-named "Woody"?
- Does anyone really ever get tired of jokes based on the name "Woody"? (heh, heh...he said woody)
FREE YOUR WOODY!
Re: Wright
This difference between observation and fact has done nothing to make me like him any more. Whenever I've seen him pitch, I've been hurt... I suppose he could turn that around... meh...
by howtheyscored on Oct 13, 2006 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
*No Woody Williams*
Re: Let's get Steve Traschel
Re: Wright
It's not entirely logical, but it's hard to turn these things off.
Fan your Woody
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Wright
Remember, this is the Giants we're talking about here.
You were Wright when said
you want...
Re: you want...
you are right...
Re: you are right...
the 5.56 ERA is more inconsistent. Look at his numbers the last 4 years - he's a solid middle of the rotation pitcher with a reasonable strikeout rate (an important consideration given the geriatric defense likely to be out there for the Giants). He's no star, but he's an above-average starter (his career ERA+ is 99 - and given starters as a whole have higher ERA's than relievers). That has value, especially at his age and as a lefty.
Re: you are right...
I still think he'l go for less than the Loaiza contract, which would be for around $6 million a year. But anything beyond that is totally ridiculous. Loaiza and Lily's ERA is similar, but Loaiza has a much longer track record, thrown a lot more innings, has a lot more wins and only four years older.
by GiantJim on Oct 17, 2006 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: you want...
I still think 4-30 is too much, but the idea of being in the market for a free agent pitcher because we were able to flip Lowry or Sanchez for a great young hitter does appeal to me.
Re: you want...
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: you want...
- Replacing Schmidt with Schmidt (or someone like him) is too expensive
I'm kinda thinking that Cain replaces Schmidt as the ace and Sanchez replaces Cain as the up-and-down youngster.
Morris/Lowry/Wright would be replaced by Morris/Lowry/Lliy. That should be an upgrade, especially if Lowry and Morris come back from injury and are more consistent next season.
Re: you want...
Re: you want...
Nobody knows for sure what starts them. Nobody knows for sure what ends them. The only sure thing, is that there are all kinds of them during the course of a game, a series, a season. I gotta believe that massive changes to the makeup of a ballclub are a big part of streaks. And that is something that happened prior to 1993, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2006. Up, down, up, up, up down and down.
I bet if somebody were to analyze those seasons that one would find a series of streaks both good and bad.
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Mr Lilly
I don't....
Crazy Money
Re: I don't....
But Lilly's getting more than $6M per year if Loaiza got $7M himself, I see them as similar pitchers. I think Grant got the right range of salary, probably around $8M per season, there's about a 10% inflation on salaries in the past few years, someone studied this at The Hardball Times I believe (or was it Beyond the Box Score?) and came up with this figure.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 13, 2006 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Lilly
by BradIsMyBrother on Oct 13, 2006 10:34 AM PDT reply actions
Re: Wright
Nice stats, if you look at his road numbers for 2006, his ERA, WHIP, and BAA are all about the same: career, 4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .267 BAA, very respectable numbers. Not to jinx, but these were the numbers I was hoping to get from Wright.
His main nemesis appear to be LHH. But he is very consistent, his pre and post ASG stats (ERA, WHIP, BAA) are almost identical. And he'll be 29 years old for next season.
The main knocks, besides LHH, I can list is his K/BB is under 2 for his road numbers and his BB/9 is above 3, though just barely, which means his K/9 is under 6, which is not good either, but he basically at the fringes between a good and mediocre pitcher, good being K/9 over 6, BB/9 under 3, K/BB over 2.
He made $4.4M last season, so a 3 years contract, $5M/$6M/$7M plus team option at $9M or $1M BO and $1M bonus for 3 year/$19M seems about the minimum of what he can get from the Giants, given that his career numbers appears to have reached his career norm, but which coincides with the new Phillies ballpark being an offensive-minded park (even in his good years, his road numbers are basically the same, amazing consistent!), and given the pacity of interesting free agents. A Loaiza sized contract is probably about what he'll get, 3 years/$21M, plus 10% inflation for approximately $23M contract.
Meanwhile, Lilly has a 4.94 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .254 BAA on the road for his career. More K's but bad BB/9 over 4, and K/BB just under 2. He'll be 31 years old next season. All around seems like he is worse than or equal to Padilla in most ways, not sure where he's better. He got $4M last season, so he should get something similar to what I laid out above for Padilla, which is close to the 3 year/$24M that Grant suggested.
Padilla hands down over Lilly, though if we can snag Maddux too, I would go for it at a reasonable salary, which I think is about $6-7M for one season. He could help with the mentoring process with Cain et al. And strengthen the rotation.
However, I would think the Dodgers would have the inside track to sign him, I don't see them letting him go with Billingsly probably a starter and no other reliable starter other than Lowe, Penny is a wild card and they don't really have a good 5th starter even with Maddux, so they will probably be trolling about Padilla and Lilly as well.
But if we got the two, then our rotation will look like this: Maddux, Morris, Cain, Lowry, Padilla. This would give Sanchez a year in AAA to hone things down and if he is ready by mid-year, Maddux and/or Morris could be traded off or perhaps free the Giants to trade Lowry in a blockbuster deal to get a young stud hitter, assuming Lowry has returned to normal. This would, of course, mean that we probably will have to go young with some position players to make up for the money invested in the rotation, though at most $15M, that leaves $30M for LF, RF, 3B, 2B, 1B, maybe catcher, and a reliever or three. Seems doable, even if Bonds at $10M and Durham at $8M, but would preclude an Aramis signing.
I would prefer signing Aramis than signing Maddux but if Aramis gets a Monopoly money contract, then I would like to get Maddux. But, again, I expect LA to keep him.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 13, 2006 11:11 AM PDT reply actions
Ted Lilly
2007- $6M, 2007- $7M, 2008- $8M.
Wants to pitch for the Giants.
Left-handed.
200ip per year.
Fourth starter at worst.
Sign him.
Cain
Lowry
Morris
Lilly
???
Re: Ted Lilly
by howtheyscored on Oct 13, 2006 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Ted Lilly
Re: Ted Lilly
He is basically a league average starter, who isn't really a workhorse.
Career high..
injury for 2005 was?
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: injury for 2005 was?
by E Ticket on Oct 13, 2006 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Lilly
by BradIsMyBrother on Oct 13, 2006 2:04 PM PDT reply actions
Re: Wright
Kip Wells was just mentioned... I think his injury history warrants a minor league deal, but someone might give him a cheap guaranteed deal with a ton of incentives. Other than that there are the fringe starters (Pedro Astacio? John Wasdin? Rick Helling? Has anyone else noticed that it's been a few years since Rick Helling has totally sucked?) and the injury reclamations (John Thomson? Brian Lawrence? Uh... Shawn Estes?) Or the 4-A guys (Andrew Good? I've always had irrationally positive feelings about Seth Etherton.)
And count me as another "okay with Lilly but would rather make a run at Padilla."
Re: Padilla
by BradIsMyBrother on Oct 13, 2006 3:59 PM PDT reply actions
Re: Wright
Re: Wright
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 13, 2006 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Pujols yakking about Glavine
by victor frankenstein on Oct 13, 2006 6:08 PM PDT reply actions
Something about his Momma
Re: here is a link
by victor frankenstein on Oct 13, 2006 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Poo-Holes
2nd, Why did Poo-Holes point to the sky after his 9th inning "double" (in quotes, because he went to 2nd base on the throw, as the replay showed he stopped after rounding first). I mean, really, is a double worth a sky-point? No, it's not.
3rd, Sean Green should have thrown that
4th, Billy Wagner has Proven Closer's Syndrome ("PCS"). He just can't pitch in a non-save situation.
by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 13, 2006 8:49 PM PDT reply actions
Re: Poo-Holes
Skypointing was poignant, oh say, about 3623 years ago when you could actually part seas and stuff by doing so.
by E Ticket on Oct 14, 2006 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Wright
Now the damn Cards are going to play like they can win th' damn thing...and we'll have to wait an extra week for the Series to be over...and behind us...us who aren't there...again...
by victor frankenstein on Oct 13, 2006 9:47 PM PDT reply actions

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