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Around SBN: Terry Collins, David Wright, And The Mets/Brewers Kerfuffle

NWL Top 20 List (Baseball America)

Here are the Giants that made the list.  Hmmm Baby!!

  1. Pablo Sandoval, 3b, Salem-Keizer
  2. Dan Griffin, rhp, Salem-Keizer
  3. Ben Copeland, of, Salem-Keizer
  4. Michael Mooney, of, Salem-Keizer
I was starting to get pretty excited about our 4 prospects until I noticed the list from 5 years ago.
  1. *Freddie Bynum, ss, Vancouver (Athletics)
  2. *Lance Niekro, 1b, Salem-Keizer (Giants)
  3. Joe Torres, lhp, Boise (Angels)
  4. Aaron Krawiec, lhp, Eugene (Cubs)
  5. *Jamal Strong, of, Everett (Mariners)
  6. Ryan Jorgensen, c, Eugene (Cubs)
  7. Charlie Thames, rhp, Boise (Angels)
  8. *Garrett Atkins, 1b/3b, Portland (Rockies)
  9. *Brad Hawpe, of/1b, Portland (Rockies)
  10. Wilton Chavez, rhp, Eugene (Cubs)
It always amazes me how many guys don't make it but regardless Sandoval is going to become an All-Star.

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This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Actually...
...I'd say that's a pretty good list (5 yrs. ago) from ONE league.  

by Kent @ McCovey Chronicles on Sep 22, 2005 6:40 PM PDT reply actions  

Plus
I think with the increased coverage of the minors and amateur baseball, prospect ratings may be getting more accurate. Still the injury problem though.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Copeland
They sure loved Copeland without really giving a reason why Mooney and Dyche played more CF than him.  If he can stay at centerfield he would be nice(maybe a few more steals wouldn't hurt), but it just seemed like he wasn't fielding as well as Dyche or Mooney were when he was in the game.

A manager is quoted saying the talent is down from where it usually is, but that was the case last year as well and their list of players didn't do well in fullseason this year to top it off.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/04league20s/ntw.html

by Derelict on Sep 22, 2005 7:57 PM PDT reply actions  

cop talent
That reference about Mooney spending much time in CF was mistaken.  He barely played there.  In fact, I was surprised when Mooney would play in LF instead of RF given the strength of Mooney's throwing arm.

One reason why talent was down in the league this year was that Oakland, which typically has a lot of picks early in the draft, spent a lot of its picks this year on high school players who did not make it to the NWL.  Granted, their very top picks are often not in the NWL long enough to qualify for the list, but Oakland did not have an array of players drafted in the 2nd through 8th rounds this year in the NWL.

I would also point out how many of the Giants top prospects never played in the NWL.  That would include Matt Cain, Marcus Sanders, Merkin Valdez and Brian Wilson.  A few other lesser prospects are Billy Sadler, Brian Buscher and Erick Threets.  No longer a propsect (due to playing time), but Todd Linden also never played in the NWL.

by steve S on Sep 23, 2005 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

True
Looking at the other lists you could see the first round picks were in fullseason or rookie leagues.  It still seems like looking at other teams siginings of the 2005 draft that some of the picks from rounds 2-5, that several teams haven't signed theirs. Also I'm wondering where the foreign talent is.
Anyways my point is, I can't see why this year's list is any worse than last year's talent-wise.  The lists both look similarly bad.

I think Mooney played center a lot more than you think.  In the beginning of the season Dyche played center and then it seems like a couple of games in Mooney played center every other day.  Either way it seemed like from the radio broadcasts that the announcer felt like on some plays that Dyche or Mooney would have gotten to the ball(when he was in the corner outfield position and when he was playing center).  

by Derelict on Sep 24, 2005 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Foreign Talent
Last year, most of the foreign talent stayed home because of visa problems.  That got ironed out this year so it was like a double class in the rookie leagues.

Still, it seems like there hasn't been all that many on any of the lists so far.  It's encouraging that 4 out of the 7 Giants prospects listed for the AZL and NWL were from outside the US, Martis, Joaquin, Shoop, and Sandoval.  I'm especially excited about Martis and Shoop from Curacao.  The fact that we have two from there this year tells me that we have an active scouting program there.  If you watched the Little League WS, you know that Curacao has a great Little League program.  That could become a real hotbed for talent with highly developed skills in the near future.  I know Andruw Jones is from Curacao.  I don't know about any other major leaguers.  Every single one of the players on their Little League team said Andruw Jones was their favorite player.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 24, 2005 3:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mooney CF?
I think Mooney did not play as much CF as you think.  I just went through the box scores for the first month of the season, and he played in CF three times, all of which were days off for Dyche (with two in a row in mid-July when Dyche was hitting about .150).

I would also note that as I recall Brian Horwitz played more in CF last year than Mooney played this year.  I don't recall Horwitz playing in CF once this year.  

by steve S on Sep 24, 2005 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're Right
I just did a double-check and it seems like I wanted to believe Mooney played some CF and so I lied to myself.  Skimming through half the games, his CF play was non-existent.  Copeland put up some nice stats,BA liked him and they think he can play CF; if he can then he's a good hitting CF.

Thanks for checking the game logs.

by Derelict on Sep 24, 2005 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

backup CF
Dyche was Salem-Keizer's primary CFer all season long.  Mooney was the backup until Copeland joined the team, and then Copeland became the backup.

by steve S on Sep 25, 2005 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yikes!!
Did anyone see the picture of Pablo Sandoval?  OMG!!  Talk about the Pillsbury Doughboy!  That kid isn't just overweight. He's seriously obese!  OMG!! My hands won't stop shaking!  His listed Ht/Wt is 5'11, 180 lbs.  BA has him at 210 lbs.  I guarantee you he's quite a bit heavier than that.  There is no way, NO WAY a kid who looks like that is ever going to play in the big leagues.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 23, 2005 4:57 AM PDT reply actions  

Good point
Yeah baseball players are always svelte and light like John Kruk and Cecil Fielder (and Prince Fielder).

by slcgiant on Sep 23, 2005 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fat Players
I'm pretty sure both Fielders showed more power at a early age than Sandoval has so far.  I lived in Philly when Krukker was in his prime.  Kruk was thin compared to this picture of Sandoval.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 23, 2005 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

obese?
That seems like an overly strong word to me, but I probably shouldn't question the Doc on this.  I would point out that the picture is probably not too current.  Since he is wearing a "Giants" jersey, the picture is probably from spring training or extended spring training.  But I also agree that he is not 210 lb.  I would put it at closer to 225.

by steve S on Sep 23, 2005 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

is there a link anywhere?
Is he just fat or is he Oh-My-god-he-might-have-metabolic-syndrome-obese?
Location: Firmly ensconced in the driver's seat of the Jonathan Sanchez Bandwagon

by kenshin1 on Sep 23, 2005 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Subscription needed
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/05league20s/nwl.html

If you don't have a subscription, you can email me and I will send you the pic as attachement.

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yikes...
someone needs to ban Sandavol from the buffet line (and buy him a larger uniform)
Location: Firmly ensconced in the driver's seat of the Jonathan Sanchez Bandwagon

by kenshin1 on Sep 23, 2005 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Send him some trimspa!
On a realated note, I recommend buying the online subscription to BA. Worth the cash, except maybe if you are a poor medical student who is about to discover that one of the proposed budget cuts in "Operation Offset" is subsidized student loans for grad students.

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK, Maybe I was a little too harsh.
I finally got up the nerve to go back and take another look.  The kid certainly has a massive upper body.  If he's really only 19, and from his face, that's about how old he looks, I'm just trying to imagine what he's going to look like in 7 or 8 years.  But, maybe he isn't that far off of John Kruk and Kirby Puckett.  I'd like to see a full head to toe picture.  I've heard he has an even more massive lower body, but if that's true, he must weigh about 260 lbs.  His arms and shoulders look pretty muscular, so hopefully he will start to show some power.  Interesting.  It's just that I was so, well, shocked by that picture.  I'm not sure what I was expecting, but it sure wasn't that!

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 23, 2005 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

SAL prediction
  1. Sanders
  2. Sanchez - I bet his playoff start boosted his rating.

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 11:45 AM PDT reply actions  

too high
I'll go with Sanders 11, Sanchez 19-20.

by prospecthound on Sep 24, 2005 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I always pay attention to the NWL
As the team is named after me. Well, and my arch-nemesis Keizericus.

by Salemicus on Sep 23, 2005 3:53 PM PDT reply actions  

I have always thought
that everybody needs an arch-nemesis to keep you on you toes.

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

BA NWL chat: 6 comments on Giants prospects
An amazing portion of Will Kimmey's NWL chat was devoted to the Giants. His comments about Griffin seem especially encouraging, and he also talked about some of the other good-looking prospects who didn't make the top 20 list.

Here are the Giants questions:

Q:  Robyn Drever from Salinas, CA asks:
Was Will Thompson overlooked due to his season ending injury? Wasn't he leading the league in batting average when he was hurt?

 A:  Will Kimmey: No, Thompson certainly was discussed. He batted .380 before injuring his ankle. Managers loved how he stayed inside the ball and didn't try to do too much with it, but ultimately he misses out because for a first baseman who's about to turn 23 in six weeks, you want to see more power than two homers, and this is playing in a park that encourages extra-base hits because of its dimensions. Thompson's Mark Grace in the best scenario, and still is an interesting sleeper, but he'll really need to get on the fast track to make the majors in a reasonable amount of time.

Q:  Casey from Guilderland, NY asks:
Hi Will, Thanks for the chat. I am real excited to see Dan Griffin at #7 on your list - can you tell us a little more about him? Where do you see him starting next season, and is he for real, or was he just handling younger competition when he should have been in the Sally League? Granted, he is VERY young for a guy out of college (not even 21 yet). He was one of my buddies in High School, and we're all rooting for him back here in Guilderland. Thanks!

 A:  Will Kimmey: Guilderland, reminds me of the guilder, the form of currency in the Netherlands before the euro came to pass. Great name. Oh, you asked a question? I'd say Griffin was right where he needed to be this summer. He's a college draft, sure, but Niagara isn't quite the same as pitching in the Big 12 or SEC or Pac 10, plus being up North, Griffin's gotten less experience than the Sun Belters as well. That he led the NCAA in K's per nine this year was encouraging, but not as encouraging as the fact that he basically kept mowing guys down at a similar rate in the NWL. His power fastball and hard curveball make that possible. Low Class A seems realistic for 2006, because the Giants don't need to rush him now with what's in the chute ahead of him. Plus the org showed much patience with Matt Cain this year, letting him work at Triple-A nearly all season when they could have recalled him much earlier. For me, that's a good plan because it hurts to rush a young arm into struggles at the major league level.

Q:  tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks:
Why did Pablo Sandoval move from catcher to 3b? I don't recall the Giants having any other catchers with his ability (hitting at least) in the organization and Mike Matheny should hopefully be long gone by the time Sandoval is ready for the majors.  

 A:  Will Kimmey: It was a better fit for his skills. And after a year at third, there's certainly a consensus that he's better there than behind the plate. The move could also help unlock his offensive skills quicker, though that's more my inference than a stated fact. As for being short at catcher, look at the organization and third base is about as thin, so that part of he equation won't be a big deal. The Giants also moved another catcher, Todd Jennings, to the infield this year as well.

Q:  Dave from New York asks:
What's your take on the Giants placing four players on this list without a first, second or third round pick this past draft?

 A:  Will Kimmey: Three things: 1) Good drafting to nab Copeland and Griffin in rounds 4 and 5. 2) Thin league in talent. 3) Mooney and Sandoval weren't 05 drafts, so that's of no consequence.

Q:  Matt from Laguna Niguel, CA asks:
The Giants seem to have a lot of lower level prospects with tremendous upside. They've got 7 of the top 40 in the ASL and NWL. Aren't there some other names from the Giants that just missed being put on these lists also?

 A:  Will Kimmey: Sure, Dave McKae enjoed a very good year. I mentioned Thompson earlier. Joey Dyche can really rake. He batted .500 in 202 at-bats at Lewis-Clark State this spring but seemed a little run down by the time he reached Salem. Manager Steve Decker really liked Wayne Foltin out of the pen, with a lively, swing and miss fastball and a power slider.

Q:  Brad from Portland, Maine asks:
Who impresses you more Ben Copeland or Mike Mooney, why?

 A:  Will Kimmey: Their raw athleticism stands out the most. Mooney's got more power while Copeland could play more of a speedy game with flashes of power.

The session ended with this general comment about the difficulty of evaluating players in the low minors (the last line echoes slcgiant's opening comment here - does Kimmey read McCovey Chronicles too?):

 A:  Will Kimmey: This will be the last one, and it's a question more about the process of this list, so it's a fitting summation. Putting together prospect lists at the lowest levels often presents the most difficult jorb of any league because the age groups and experience levels vary wildly. Also, players are still adjusting to all that goes into professional ball, including playing everyday, the traveling, and even finding a new culture for foreign players and coping with culture shock for domestic ones adjusting to parts of the country they've never seen. These off the field factors can strongly color on the field performance. So stats aren't quite as important at these levels, while players are finding their way and making changes their ne organizations have suggested. Dominant years for very young players will stand out more positively, while giant struggles for much advanced players tend to hurt. In general, big tools are favored because they can lend to star potential. Polished command pitchers like Jeff Gilmore, Robert Rohrbaugh, Mike Madsen, Trey Shields, Brent Carter often show well at these levels, but their stuff won't lead to as large an impact if they make the majors as a guy with even one dominant tool. It's the nature of the game. And by that nature, these lower-level lists are often very boom or bust, hit or miss. Check the five years ago future for evidence in that regard.

by FavoriteSpring on Sep 24, 2005 3:58 AM PDT reply actions  

I think you can apply that to almost any Top10list
Injuries and hitting the wall takes a toll, especially when you are starting off with a rookie league.  But I think you could almost apply that to most Top 10 lists in whatever minor league, or whatever team's farm system.  

Look at the Dodgers and Giants.  Just a couple of offseasons ago, there was non-stop raving about the Dodgers pitching prospects, Edwin Jackson and Greg Miller, but clearly not near as much about the Giants.  But Lowry and Cain are now pitching well for the Giants and Jackson and Miller are doing nada for the Dodgers.  

Look at the A's and Met's 4 Aces that were touted in the early 1990's, after the A's pulled the coup of signing a 1st round guy in a much later round by giving him $1M bonus (Van Poppel).  I think none of them made it as a starter, Isringhausen is the most successful of the bunch by far, Van Poppel and Karsay became useful relievers but not even a top set-up man among the bunch, from what I recall.

Moreover, I think it is just a nature of the beast.  Realistically, how many minor leaguers become regular major leaguers each year?  Don't got the numbers but I would imagine that it is not huge; even at 2 per team that's only 60 players but I would think less than 2 on average.  Then you divide by all the minor leaguers who are out there, which I don't got either but conservatively estimate at at least 3000 (there is potentially 1500 new draftees each year so I figure that there should be at least double that figure in total but probably more).  That's 2%.  So very few make the majors each year but each league has to pick their Top 10/20 prospects, no matter what their potential relative to past years or relative to making the majors.

The positive to take from this list is that Atkins and Hawpe are doing pretty well for the Rockies this season and Niekro has had his moments and been with the team all season.  That's a 30% "conversion" rate and, with esssentially 3-4 in the top list, that implies that the Giants might have a good chance that one of the four will do well for us in the majors 5 years from now.  That's one more than we've been looking at for most years of the Sabean era.

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Sep 26, 2005 4:16 PM PDT reply actions  

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