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Around SBN: Clippers Need To Realize That Spurs Are The Anti-Grizzlies

One through five.

This is the sixth installment of a riveting investigation into how the Giants are shaping up next year. The third base discussion can be found here, catcher discussion here, first base is here, outfield here and the middle infield is discussed here.   In the movie of this series, both Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman are in talks to play myself.

With Kirk Rueter going to the DL with a pulled suck muscle, the Giants called on grizzled minor league vet Brian Cooper to start a game. He pitched well, but the bullpen blew it for him. It remains to be seen whether he will be voted a World Series share.

The rotation was supposed to be, and stop me if you've heard this one before, a strength this year. With Bonds out, there was concern about the offense. While not setting the world ablaze, the collective offensive output has not been embarrassing. The bullpen had a miserable start, but has pitched much better over the past two months. But the starting pitching, oh, that starting pitching.

Here's how we entered the season:

#1 - A true ace.
#2 - A flame-throwing journeyman who finally put it all together.
#3 - A solid, inning-eating youngster who could take it to the next level any day now.
#4 - A likeable human horseshoe who left his ability to be a good pitcher at his ex-girlfriend's house in the late `90s, and can't work up the nerve to call her to get it back.
#5 - A young lefty who used a plus-changeup to sail through the National League last season.
Here's how we stand now:
#1 - A true ace, Giants style, complete with control issues and high pitch counts.
#2 - A flame-throwing journeyman who finally put it all together, only to step back and realize there were two leftover pieces. Now, what were those for....
#3 - A young lefty who lost his plus-changeup, but found it on his path to becoming a true ace, Giants style, complete with control issues and high pitch counts.
#4 - A young pitcher currently with more heart than ability.
#5 - A young pitcher currently with more heart than ability.

Jerome Williams, an above-average pitcher at every level he has every pitched at, had a bad couple of months. Obviously, he was immediately traded for an expensive reliever on a team that didn't really want him anymore. It stands to reason the Giants could have procured an Alfredo Simon-type prospect, or even the real thing, and packaged him with the closest thing the Giants had to a Ricky Ledee-style player, which they certainly do have in Michael Tucker. That's what the Giants got for an expensive reliever on a team that didn't really want him anymore. You'd think the market had been set. Now, the Giants need pitching, and the free-agent market is going to consist of Jeff Fassero and 42 pitchers who will be paid tens of millions more than they're worth. Williams might have helped. But I digress. The rash caused by that trade is going to need more than penicillin.

Schmidt and Lowry are the only givens in the 2006 rotation. The rest of the staff is up in the air. Kevin Millwood might come cheap enough, but he'll most likely get the 4 year/$32 M contract the free-agent starters from last year found on their hotel room pillow like a little mint. AJ Burnett is a good pitcher, soon to be a multi-millionaire, and will still get the multi-millions even after his elbow goes "sprooooing!" and shoulder goes "ker-floooosh!", which might have happened in the past thirty seconds. (Note: Not true, as ESPN does not have a story about Burnett's serious injury. Please check again in thirty seconds.)

Hennessey is looking better, but has an incredibly limited track record of success in the minors. Kevin Correia combines Tomko's good stuff with Tomko's penchant for gopher balls, and wraps that package up with dodgy control. Matt Cain is 20, and should not be counted on for anything. If he happens to bust out, that's a privilege, not a right. Jesse Foppert is...oh, right. Ahem. David Aard...oh, right. The rest of the farm system would need to produce a major surprise in order to help the rotation more than the above pitchers.

So, where now? Give your best guess as to the rotation of the 2006 Giants, because I give up. Schmidt, Lowry, maybe Hennessey, and?

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My Guess.....
  1. Schmidt
  2. Lowry
  3. a. Free Agent Signed righty or b. Tomko
  4. a. Hennessey or b. Free Agent Signed lefty
  5. Umm......Fassero?
Man: What they need is a front office. Jerry: But you gotta like their chances. .....Not so much this year.....

by WalrusMan on Aug 8, 2005 3:12 PM PDT reply actions  

Can't count on Cain?
What kind of nonsense is that? Anyway, my 2006 rotation prediction:
  1. Schmidty
  2. Lowry
  3. Padilla
  4. Lohse *
  5. Cain
* Obtained via trade for Fonzie + Snatchwig

by mxmob33 on Aug 8, 2005 3:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Interesting deal...
...and I could live with that rotation (and without Fonzie). Although I wonder if anyone out there has any faith in Alfonzo anymore, even if we pay some of his salary or throw in a prospect. Of the two, Durham's contract is starting to look a lot more tradeable.

OPS by month for Fonzie:
April - .996
May - .643
June - .590
July - .445
August - .604

Here's to a scorching road trip that convinces someone to make a run at him before August 31st.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Aug 8, 2005 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cooper?
What about Cooper? Did he not prove himself last night?

by tk on Aug 8, 2005 3:23 PM PDT reply actions  

My prediction
Not in any order, since we can't really predict what the hell the plan will be next week, let alone next year:

Schmidt
Lowry
Cain
Tomko (surprise, surprise)
Free Agent who makes us say, "Why him?"

by Skaldheim on Aug 8, 2005 3:30 PM PDT reply actions  

This was my exact guess
Although I might have Hennessey as a placeholder for Cain for a month or two.

I am assuming that the Giants will sign Tomko under the "you have to follow Tomko closely to know how good he can be" philosophy, although they could also employ the "you have to follow Tomko closely to know how maddening he is" strategy and run away. Either way they should offer him arbitration. Which they won't.

I have no idea what sort of free agent Sabean will go after. Tomko was a bargain in 2004, but rumor has it that we only signed him because Darren Oliver was asking for too much money. So who knows? Pencil in "Jamey Wright" as my "Why him?" dark horse, though.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Aug 8, 2005 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Scary
My first instinct is to say, "oh, they don't just take the worst contract of last year and use it as the basis for arbitration," but frankly, I don't have enough faith in the logic of the process to suggest otherwise. But I do know that the arbitrators can't award him a crippling long-term Miltonesque deal, which we may end up pursuing on the free agent market otherwise.

And besides, don't you think it would be therapeutic for the Giants to sit down in an arbitration session with Tomko and spell out all of their frustrations with him? Perhaps they'll put together a video montage of Tomko meltdowns, and compile quotes from this site.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Aug 8, 2005 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

arb
I know that they can't give Tomko a multi-year award.

But I also know that he'll get $4-5M at a minimum, which is way more than both he deserves and the Giants can afford to spend on a fifth starter.

by Bhaakon on Aug 8, 2005 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Question, slightly off topic, but related...
Did "Merkin Valdez will open the 2007 season as the 4th starter" officially get the old heave-ho?

by David A. Arnott on Aug 8, 2005 3:57 PM PDT reply actions  

About the same time that
His AA K rate plummetted, exposing his unimpressive command, and leaving him stranded in AA while Steven Randolph and Matt Kinney get starts in Fresno.

Oh, then he got moved to the bullpen.

by Bhaakon on Aug 8, 2005 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Merkin in Relief
I see Merkin as the reincarnation of Felix Rodriquez - one pitch pony with limited control but good enough stuff to stick for a few years in the majors.

by APGiantsFan on Aug 8, 2005 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

06 - they go in house
Schmidt
Lowry
Hennessey
Correia
Cain

If they are out of it in mid June, deal Schmidt and recall Misch or Burres. I wouldn't be suprised if Valdez is now a reliever for good, but they may also want to limit his innings.

by irwin on Aug 8, 2005 4:04 PM PDT reply actions  

Rotation
Schmidt
Lowry
Cain
Rain
Pray for a hurricane!
They're still shitty.

by The Balls of Summer on Aug 8, 2005 4:28 PM PDT reply actions  

06-Excuse My Ignorance
of predicting which of our minor leaguers are ready, I am unqualified to assess, have not seen, and have no inside information of how the Giants evaluate, which is guarded like top secret info.

Schmidt
Tomko-I think, if he wants to be back here
Lowry
Hennesy
Free Agent in the #2-5 quality.  If Tomko does not come back, maybe Correia is your #5.  

Not too exciting.  But maybe Cain can make his way in, if he has a big spring and the rest of the rotation looks set.  

If the offense is better, they will coast with what they have and try to bolster at the trade deadline.

by out machine on Aug 8, 2005 4:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Well, color me fuschia and call me witty...
But I don't see them bringing Tomko back. He seems a ready scapegoat, and even if the goat is not to be scaped, he has that quality of not being very good for them to fall back on. I'd love him as a cheap 5th starter, but...

Schmidt
Lowry
Hennessey (Sabean loves quality starts towards the end of the season. all it'll take is one or two more for him to be pencilled in)
...
......
...
free agent TBA
..........
... . ....
..
Corriea (because I just busted fried undisclosed amounts of brain matter thinking of someone else)

I'd be the best at everything, if only there weren't so many people better than me. Or, if everyone died, just for a few seconds.

by Daniel on Aug 8, 2005 4:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Knowing Sabean...
...Satchell Paige might be in the running.
  1. Lowry
  2. Jason Jennings
  3. Cain until he gets injured, then Correia
  4. Hennessey until he gets injured, then Misch
  5. Cal Eldred

by lyricalkiller on Aug 8, 2005 5:11 PM PDT reply actions  

yes
good call on jennings

by irwin on Aug 8, 2005 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

By August next year
Noah Lowry
Brian Cooper
Matt Kinney
Seung Song
Steven Randolph

Or do you prefer

Lance Niekro
Joe Niekro
Phil Niekro
JT Snow
Jack Snow

They're still shitty.

by The Balls of Summer on Aug 8, 2005 5:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Pulled suck muscle
With Kirk Rueter going to the DL with a pulled suck muscle, the Giants called on grizzled minor league vet Brian Cooper to start a game. He pitched well, but the bullpen blew it for him. It remains to be seen whether he will be voted a World Series share.
#2 - A flame-throwing journeyman who finally put it all together, only to step back and realize there were two leftover pieces. Now, what were those for....

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry, but I'm laughing. I wasn't around in the Boof days... can someone confirm that Grant was this amusing when the Giants didn't suck? I'd hate to think that this site will go to hell when the team turns it around. Or that it won't even be an issue until 2013.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Aug 8, 2005 5:28 PM PDT reply actions  

.. he was
Grant, you may recall, is a Giants fan - and thus has the innate ability to see everything that could go wrong with his team - and usually does. Its a trait many of us share, without the repoz-esque wittiness.. ;)

by Aadik on Aug 8, 2005 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jason Jennings
I kind of think the Giants might trade for Jason Jennings, so:

Schmidt
Lowry
Jennings
Hennessey
Revolving Door

Loiza might be a possibility. Maybe one of the Twins' back-of-the-rotation guys. Cain late in the year. Merkin if he has a great spring. Correia if he has a string of good starts at the end of this year.

by Dan from NM on Aug 8, 2005 6:39 PM PDT reply actions  

The Boof Days
Grant has been a funny wiseass all along.  Ironically, Boof is starting to look like a better option than most guys on the farm now.  And please, when Francisco Liriano turns into a great set-up man or more, let's have Sabean's head on a platter.

by achiappanza on Aug 8, 2005 11:40 PM PDT reply actions  

jonathan sanchez
oops, hit enter

sanchez is now pitching in norwich....his k/bb is over 4-1

while he might not be ready in 06 (he needs to work on endurance) he may end up getting the call
in mid 06

it looks like both simon and merkin are staying in the pen

by bacci40 on Aug 8, 2005 11:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Where did you find Sanchez to Norwich?
He just pitched in Augusta last Friday, and neither roster reflects that he's moved.

by Roger on Aug 10, 2005 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Next year
Jennings, Loaiza -- you guys are way too optimistic.
We're looking at Paul Byrd as our free agent acquisition.

by Voodoo Chile on Aug 9, 2005 12:54 AM PDT reply actions  

honestly
I would rather have byrd than jennings

by irwin on Aug 9, 2005 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Give me Millwood!
Maybe I'm the only optimist in this bunch, but I think we are one good signing away from being a very solid team. Let's say we take on Millwood. He's not old, he's reasonably durable, he would do well at our park, and he no-hit the Giants! Which, admittedly, doesn't mean much.

Still, give us Millwood and the rotation looks great:

Schmidt
Millwood
Lowry
Hennessy
Cain

Dump Rueter. Dump Tomko. Dump the idea of using Correia as a starter. Dump Fassero.

Really, these are not difficult decisions. Concerned about the payroll? Don't be. You've only got 1-2 more years of Bonds before this franchise takes a very long, dark rebuilding phase in which we can cut that salary back plenty as we get young. Please, Sabean - PLEASE - make one last good run at this thing. You put your eggs in this aging basket - fine, can't change that now. But I hope he has the sense to sign a really solid #2 starter. If not, it's all for waste.

In the context of everything I've just said, even the Randy Winn trade makes sense. Even (gulp) the Latroy Hawkins trade is lessened from a total F- to a more palatable C-... The Giants need to make one last, desperate run at a championship with this group. Lock, load, take your shot. If the wheels come off next year, begin the purging...

by Peter Bean on Aug 9, 2005 1:16 PM PDT reply actions  

06 Rotation
  1.  A true ace - having rediscovered his control;
  2.  A young lefty who changes up the hitters who were catching on to him;
  3.  A mid-level free agent, either Tomko or Padilla (I really liked what I saw of Padilla a couple years ago);
  4.  A young pitcher whose ability catches up with his heart;
  5.  Either a really young pitcher with lots of ability or ?

by APGiantsFan on Aug 9, 2005 3:55 PM PDT reply actions  

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