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Just not fair.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus coined the phrase, "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect", or TINSTAAPP. It was the coy distillation of what internet baseball nerds had preached since the early days of Usenet and Listserv; young pitchers are like praying mantis babies, with only a select few avoiding their ultimate fate as a bedtime snack.

Young pitchers excite, young pitchers get hurt, young pitchers fade away. It doesn't matter how talented they were to start. Take a look at the career of now-outfielder Rick Ankiel, and imagine the palpable excitement we all would have had if he were in the Giants system. He crashed and burned, and the more ghoulish of sabermetric types screamed, "TINSTAAPP!" with a know-it-all titter like a Trekkie might scream, "Resistance is futile!".

Like all of the theories and ideas surrounding natural selection, just because it's simple to grasp, doesn't mean it's simple to accept. The Giants had the Big Three: Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, and Kurt Ainsworth. The optimist would have seen 2005 as the year those three would have anchored the rotation, providing a cheap foundation for an eventual dynasty. The realist tried to take the Moirae out to T.G.I. Friday's for drinks, pleading for a healthy career of just one of the three. It seemed like we were granted our wish. Ainsworth has suffered serious injuries, and became a spokesperson for the TINSTAAPP Foundation by retiring. Foppert is running hot and cold against AAA hitters after coming off a major injury, never really flashing the incredible arm he once had. But there was always Williams, who was precociously giving the Giants league-average pitching with only a few injury scares to speak of. He was the chosen one of the Big Three.

Now Williams is back in Fresno, getting his hat handed to him by the Kevin Ories of the baseball world. There is no injury that we're aware of. He was a good major-league pitcher at age-22, and now he's a question mark. The situation isn't dire enough to shrug our shoulders and write him off, as this has only been going on for about two month's time. The spectre of TINSTAAPP leers over our shoulder, though. One of the more subtle footnotes of the axiom is that it doesn't have to be an elbow or shoulder to play Professor Plum in the kitchen with a wrench. The elbow and shoulder are the obvious culprits, but Ankiel's example proves anything can derail a prospect's career. It has been intimated by one or more of the prospect mavens of this site that Williams has several mechanical flaws contributing to the ugly stretch. Without knowing too much more than that, it's hoped they are the kind of flaws that can be fixed. But what if they can't?

Williams became dependable so fast, it was easy to forget he was still a young, unreliable pitcher. The Giants have historically developed pitching, but it had to be preceded by long, torturous stretches of abysmal control problems. Williams bypassed that whole requirement, and just did his thing. Now, he's stuck in Fresno with the San Francisco blues again. Bonds is out, Benitez down, Schmidt ailing, but the struggles of Jerome Williams are fast becoming the most horrific sideshow of the young season.

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Jerome Williams
Very well said.  Man, I was counting on this being Jerome's breakout season.  15 wins minimum.  His arm was fixed, that much we knew because he pitched so well at the end of last year.  Then, the reports of his newfound interest in healthy eating, settling down, starting a family, all pointed to a huge season.  Then disaster.  I knew we were on borrowed time with Bonds and Schmidt with either one sufffering a career ender at any moment.  Benitez seemed like a surer thing, but even he has always been a  little suspect for a variety of reasons, but Jerome, Jerome was supposed to be the bridge to the future, the anchor we could add Lowry, Foppert, Cain and Valdez or Misch to.  Jerome's struggles are by far the most disappointing part of the season so far.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 15, 2005 6:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

OK, you win
I'm depressed.

I have to admit I started to get pretty attached to Williams. I hope he makes it back, but, man, it's not looking good in the short term.

by Dan from NM on May 15, 2005 9:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Geez Grant
Why don't you just hold a funeral for him. A 23 year old kid misses most of spring to be with a father who's this close to dying, and then gets stupidly  skipped two starts right when he's getting up to speed. He gets a rough looking line primarily because of a power outage and suddenly he's the next Ankiel and your quoting that "I'm wrong most the time but cover it up by being pithy " geek from BP.
  6 starts. 6 plus a mulligan for the power outage fiasco. That's what it takes to get an arm into pitching shape from what is for all practical purpses a standing start. It looks ugly because it's happening against kids who are in shape and playing a month. If he doesn't have his touch after 6 starts, then write this article

by prospecthound on May 16, 2005 10:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Quick points...
  1. I wish there were more dissent for the crap I write sometimes.
  2. The jist of this article can be boiled down to, "Okay, I'm starting to freak out about Jerome Williams." I certainly wasn't comparing him to Rick Ankiel, just using Ankiel as the ultimate young pitcher horror story.  I even wrote:
    The situation isn't dire enough to shrug our shoulders and write him off, as this has only been going on for about two month's time.
  3. I like Sheehan. Anyone who spends most of their time making opinions about baseball is going to be wrong most of the time. Sheehan does it in a more entertaining fashion than almost anyone.
  4. I did not take into account the spring time Williams missed. That was pretty stupid.

by Grant on May 16, 2005 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
To paraphrase The Onion, I still question the tough-love "there is no my-father-is-dying in T-E-A-M" manner in which the Giants sent Williams down after making two bad pitches to Carlos Lee. At the time, neither Schmidt, Lowry, Rueter or Tomko were pitching much better. Major league pitchers can use a demotion to work on arm strength or mechanics, but if the problem is concentration and confidence, it's tough to expect much improvement.

Have him throw a few innings in Fresno this week, and then throw him out there against the A's on Saturday. Oakland's struggling DH-less offense might be just what he needs.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on May 16, 2005 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

6 Starts?
He's had at least four horrible starts in a row in Fresno now....

by Skaldheim on May 16, 2005 11:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

not really
He's had 4 starts total including that power outage fiasco Jef. The time before that, he went 7 innings, of which 5 were good, the sixth was iffy and he ran out of gas in the 7th.
 I'm not saying we should be without worry, all I'm saying is thatuntil he's had enough innings that he is 1) in as good of shape as the kids he's facing and 2) worked enough innings where he wshould be in sinc, we should just wait and watch.

by prospecthound on May 16, 2005 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds good...
...waiting and watching is really all the Giants can do.  If they try to bring him back to the majors before he's completed his work, though, it could get even worse.  I've heard speculation this morning that he could return to start Sunday against Oakland.  I think that would be a bad idea, all things considered.  Better to have another Johnny Wholestaff day than bring up Williams when he's not ready.

by Skaldheim on May 16, 2005 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's not give up on him
Williams is too valuable a prospect for the Giants to write off just because he's having, by any measure, a really shitty spring of throwing the baseball. On the other hand, the raised-dashed hopes trending of Giants pitching prospects is an issue worth looking into, i.e., why does this keep happening. It could be a fundamental problem with their minor league system (and, as a sub-problem, that their amateur drafting has been so poor for so long it paradoxically puts extra pressure on the players they do successfully develop). It could be Felipe's use of pitchers. It could be I'm talking out of my ass.

by Kitspool on May 16, 2005 11:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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