Cain You Feel the Love, Tonight?

by Grant Brisbee on Feb 23, 2005 2:28 PM PST in News

Quick notes:

A big welcome to Over the Monster, the newest member of the SportsBLOGS family. Try not to be too jealous of his Red Sox winning the championship. Like the 14-year old with a bad moustache who returns from a half-hour at Makeout Point with an hour full of stories, all we can do is live vicariously through him.
At the risk of making your eyes glaze over at another mention of Matt Cain, here is a top-10 prospects list from Rotoworld. There isn't too much unusual on this one, though I just don't understand what the is not to like about Pat Misch. Both Rotoworld and Baseball America did not include him in their respective top-10s. He handled a jump from the Northwest League to AA, showing outstanding control and good strikeout numbers.

Misch isn't just competing with average stuff, either, as his breaking ball and changeup are reportedly above-average. He isn't some super-prospect ready to jump out of a phone booth and give ulcers to major league hitters, but his quick promotion and success at the fairly advanced level are encouraging. When deciding on both the better short- and long-term prospect, it is hard to see how Craig Whitaker sneaks above Misch.
The Barry Bonds press conference is getting its fair share of coverage, and you can find a full transcript here. As usual, there were shades of ridiculous ("[Banning] alcohol is long overdue"), poignant ("... you've got to have some serious talent to have 53,000 people saying you suck"), and hilarious ("[The topic of steroids] is just -- this is old stuff. I mean, it's like watching Sanford and Son, you know, you just, rerun after rerun after rerun".)

The interview was entertaining for reasons other than Bonds, as well. It was established early that BALCO was off limits for discussion, so the reporters had to do a little tap dancing.

Moderator:
Mr. Condit will not answer any questions about the murder investigation.

Reporter:
Mr. Condit, if any given congressman were to hypothetically sink the body of an intern in his backyard koi pond, should the public think less of him?

Tippity tap, tippity tap. Bonds was being his rambling, snarly self, and the reporters were frustrated by the limitations. Good. Maybe the non-story about Bonds' non-informative interview will help run this story out of a little fuel, getting us close to actual baseball stories.

In my opinion, Bonds also could use to mix in a few well-placed bad words. People aren't going to like him any less, so just tell the four-eyed dweeb what he can do with his notepad, Barry. That's entertainment, and it would make you feel a little better. Start with Rick Reilly. Please.

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Manuel on Misch

Grant, John Manuel explained that the reason he left Misch off the top ten prospect list:

Just missed, one of the organization's best pitching prospects and its top lefty. He skipped from short-season ball to Double-A and didn't miss a beat. But his ceiling is No. 3 starter at best, and that's unlikely, more like a 4-5 guy. If Craig Whitaker hits it big, he's a No. 2 starter, a power, middle-of-the-rotation horse. If Aardsma hits it big, he's a power closer. If Ishikawa does, he's a 30-homer, Gold Glove 1B. Misch is more likely to reach his ceiling, but I think his ceiling is below those guys, so I ranked him below those guys.

What about this answer are you not satisfied with it? Do you think more weight should be placed on the probability of Misch reaching his ceiling?

by steve S on Feb 23, 2005 10:04 PM PST reply actions

Whoops...

I guess that was unclear. My rhetorical question was more directed toward the Rotoworld list, but I had forgotten just how thoroughly Manuel answered the question.

I absolutely think more weight should be placed on the probability of Misch reaching his ceiling. Whitaker is a teenaged power pitcher who struggled with his control in short-season ball. Misch had success in AA, surviving a fairly substantial promotion to do so.

I buy Aardsma, and, because he isn't a young pitcher, Ishikawa over Misch. Whitaker isn't chopped liver, but he's more of a curiosity at this point than a pillar of the farm system.

What are your thoughts?

by Grant Brisbee on Feb 24, 2005 12:09 AM PST up reply actions

to ceiling

Do you think that John Sickels weights likelihood of reaching ceiling considerably more than Baseball America does? In general, I think he does. But if we are talking about Misch, Sickels still ranks Misch just #9. Is not that enough weight on likelihood of reaching his ceiling?

John Manuel said that Pat Misch just missed the Giants top 10 list. If we assume that means he is #11, #12 or #13, are we really talking about much difference between #9 and #13?

I may be biased in his favor, but I like Craig Whitaker at this point--more than an organizational curiosity to me.

A couple weeks ago I found myself comparing Whitaker at this point to what Boof Bonser was at the same age following his 2001 season in Hagerstown. Obviously, Bonser's stats were better, and against a higher level of competition. If you compare their tools, is there much difference beyond the fastball command?

I wonder to what degree fastball command can be learned. I recall the issue that was raised in Moneyball about whether a hitter's plate discipline was a learnable skill or just an innate ability. I am wondering the same thing about a pitcher's command right now.

by steve S on Feb 24, 2005 1:46 PM PST up reply actions

rotoworld list

At some point, you need to ask why we care what some bozo at Rotoworld thinks about prospects. It isn't like he's seen any of these kids, he's just reading stat sheets and baseball america, just like us.

On Roger Craig Whitaker, or 'the humm baby' as we are calling him, it's hard to give thumbs up or thumbs down until he starts in Augusta. Not having an Advanced rookie League team means extended spring training and a college league, which makes it hard to get a read on these kids until they hit full season.

by prospecthound on Feb 24, 2005 11:43 AM PST reply actions

no R+

Do you really think that the lack of an advanced rookie league team hurts the Giants? I just find it a bit strange that this is brought up in the context of discussing Craig Whitaker. Last spring I saw questions about why he could not handle low-A ball, not why he could not handle ss-A ball.

There are three levels of short-season ball: rookie, advanced rookie and short-season A. To the best of my knowledge, there is only one major league team that has a team in all three of these levels. The other 29 teams all have two teams (in two of the three levels).

Given that the Giants drafts lean heavily towards college players, it seems to make sense to me that the Giants do not have a team at the R+ level.

by steve S on Feb 24, 2005 1:52 PM PST reply actions

Misch-mash

I'm too lazy to do the research, but I doubt that many pitchers who can't reach 90 are on any top 10 lists, as countless finesse pitchers have succeeded in the low minors and been shelled at higher levels. The good news for Misch is that most of these pitchers never succeeded at AA like he did. I am only one impressive month of AAA away from being very excited about this guy.

And if there is another website out there that more accurately describes Rick Reilly, I am not aware of it.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Feb 24, 2005 3:08 PM PST reply actions

Misch

I saw Misch a couple times last year, including once in July in the middle of his shutout streak (I think he threw 3 in 5 starts). In a lot of ways he's reminiscent of Woody but with a greater willingness to throw inside (at least at the AA level).

Greatest strength is command. He pounds the outer edges of the strike zone repeatedly, moves in and out up and down with control. Best pitch by far is his change, which doesn't have quite the extreme MPH dropoff of Lowry's, but very consistent arm action to the fastball.

Fastball and curve are the weak spots. Spots the fastball well but not much life or movement, and the curve is very slurvy. Uses it effectively as a "get it in" first pitch and as a waste/nibble pitch to set up the changeup.

I'll say this for him -- he looked much, much better at Norwich than Lowry did the year before (Lowry was just throwing BP when I saw him pitch for Norwich), although I think Noah was still recovering from the arm injury he'd suffered at San Jose in 2002, and the harsh, extended winter of 2003 (well over a dozen cancellations and a lot of games played in cold rainy even snowy conditions) probably didn't help.

by Roger on Feb 24, 2005 8:08 PM PST reply actions