Billy Ball
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 13, 2005 11:24 AM PST
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PrintI'm a nostalgia kind of guy. As an adult, I've spent money on a plastic A-Team lunch box found at a Santa Rosa antique store. I can't decide between Abbey Road and Pet Sounds for my favorite album of all-time. One of my proudest finds in high school was a Schoolhouse Rock t-shirt. I'm just a bill, indeed.
So it doesn't take much for me to approve a Bill Mueller acquisition, especially considering he would be replacing Pedro Feliz. Feliz seems like a nice guy; the kind of player who keeps his head down and plays the game hard. But he drives me nuts. It's as if this is his hobby, and the whole time he's in the batter's box, he's thinking about his day job.
Crap, fastball. Swing! Nope. Slider. Looked like a fastball when he threw it.
...ways to get a point across, and then there's just being a jerk. I just don't know if it's the right time to go above his head. He certainly doesn't listen to me, or even see me as a peer, that's for...
"What the hell was that? A strike? Well, yeah. I knew that, but what kind of pitch was that? A 'knuckle-curve'? Oh, now you're just making stuff up."
Feliz isn't outrageously expensive, and there are some teams who just can't ignore their blind power fetish. He could even fetch something in a trade, but that would be gravy. Just swapping Feliz out with Mueller straight up would be an improvement.
There are some major caveats, though. There always are. For all of my "2008's gonna suck anyway" bluster, even I wouldn't touch Mueller for a guaranteed third year. There is no way Mueller is going to age that well. He's likely to have a long, Dave Magadan-like pinch-hitting career after he's through starting, but that isn't worth $4-$5M.
We've also seen what Mueller can and can't do in Mays Field. His 2000 season was before he bloomed into the Mueller enjoyed by the Boston faithful, but it still serves as evidence for a guess on what he would do here. Whatever power he showed in Boston couldn't be counted on.
Exchanging Feliz for Mueller would add another hitter to the lineup who can avoid outs. That'd be outstanding, but it isn't everything the Giants need. There would still be a nasty lack of power on the roster. After Bonds, there would only be Moises Alou to expect power from. Alou is more of a good hitter that happens to have a little power, less of a guaranteed power source. After that, the Giants would have to scrape and dink, dunk and bloop to get their runs. Vizquel, Mueller, Winn, Durham, Sweeney...not a bad hitter in the bunch, but I'd guess they're good for about 40 combined homers, and I'd take the under. There are more than a few ways to score runs, but just one more power hitter would be the wig on Sinead O'Connor for this team, making palatable what was once, uh, you know, Sinead O'Connor.
Mueller was my favorite player when he was on the Giants, and one of an incredibly small number of players I wouldn't boo as a Dodger. I'd almost go for that third year just to never see him in Dodger blue. But he isn't the player to break the budget for, and he isn't even that much of a given in his mid-30s to outperform Feliz. The arms are open for the prodigal fruit of the farm system's loins, just as long as it comes with a pseudo-hometown discount, and a hope that a power hitter will still materialize before March.
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Re: Billy Ball
The acquisition of Morris indicates for the first time this offseason that messers. petey and brian are serious about the '06 season as the barry banquet winds down. i am pretty sure now that they are going to go hard for another starter and a bonafide power guy. it may not happen until March but the signing of Morris indicates "in for a penny; in for a pound."
I fret not about contracts. Its not my money. I am the customer. I demand value. Its up to the seller to convince me that their product has value. As a customer I don't give a rat's ass if the seller makes a profit. All I know is this. If you put out a championship product, people will buy it and the profits will take care of themselves.
by E Ticket on Dec 13, 2005 11:55 AM PST reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
Does anyone know if Joe Randa is signed? I wouldn't mind seeing the Giants taking a chance on him for two years. He always seems to be a pretty solid player who I think is underrated. He usually puts up 10-15 Homeruns with 30 doubles. I think his power would drop at SBC but he is more of a gap hitter anyways.
Sinead
As for Billy? I think my Audioscrobbler tells you the story.
by Leee @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2005 12:06 PM PST reply actions
Re: Sinead
by Josh from Hollywood on Dec 13, 2005 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Sinead
And the point wasn't that she was hideous without hair, just as the Giants aren't a total embarrassment. Just the wig would work wonders. Maybe some plugs.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 13, 2005 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Sinead
by Leee @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2005 5:11 PM PST up reply actions
I though Alba
Re: Billy Ball
And less outs
by Nick Schulte on Dec 13, 2005 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
Re: And less outs
Power
Feliz .439
Mueller .425
Fenway definitely helped Mueller, but the difference isn't that much. Mostly because Mueller is a career .292 hitter and Feliz is only at .255.
If it's between Mueller and Feliz I'd much rather have Mueller. If other teams would love to have Feliz, great, let's trade him to get rid of his salary. Between Nomar and Mueller I'm having a tough time deciding because I don't trust Nomar to stay healthy. But I definitely want to sign one of them and trade Feliz.
by Nick Schulte on Dec 13, 2005 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Power
My point was
by Nick Schulte on Dec 13, 2005 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
Re: My point was
by prospecthound on Dec 13, 2005 5:59 PM PST up reply actions
Re: My point was
I know it's fashionable to knock Pedro, but he is a quality power hitter and a quality defensive third baseman. Take him for what he is and all in all he's not bad. He is never going to be the contact doubles hitter Mueller or Alfonso are, but his strengths shouldn't be ignored either.
Re: Power
Re: Power
SayHey, are you part of the Revolution? Or do you view baseball as it's been viewed by the mainstream for time immemorial? Many of us here actively participate in the Revolution, so saying that Feliz is clearly the better power hitter based on selective memory and visual impressions doesn't necessarily fly. The SLG percentages indicate that THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE between the two in that element of their games. You can argue the precision of the methodology, but if you accept SLG as a legitimate measure of power and extra base hitting ability, then you can't argue against the numbers and their results. Find a way to objectively quantify how Feliz might be better than Mueller.
by David A. Arnott on Dec 13, 2005 8:14 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Power
Am I part of a "revolution"? If that means do I follow the "Billyball" nonsense that tries to glorify on-base percentage above all else, then the answer is no. If you mean do I like looking a host of stats that give a better picture than any one stat does then the answer is yes. Mostly, I like to watch the game played and see with eyes that have watch Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Robinson, Clemente, McCovey, and a host of others play, and see and know quality baseball.
If I have to deny what is obvious to be part of a "revolution," then as the great John Lennon once said, "don'tcha know you can count me out."
Re: Power
B) Having seen baseball played over fifty seasons and having those memories is nothing to dismiss out of hand. However, I think it's fallacious to say that anyone can watch enough baseball, even in a lifetime, to trust his eyes to tell him who is a good player and who is not simply from watching him play a game, some games, or every game over the course of a season, because only trusting your eyes only gets you so far. I buy the notion that a good set of statistics is an excellent analogue to watching an individual player play every game, because they detail what he did in those games. I also buy the notion that math is a beautiful language that can tell us a lot about what players did and how to get the most success out of baseball. Of course, poring over numbers doesn't usually give the emotional charge of seeing Dontrelle's kick or Sheffield's bat flick, but when it comes to assigning value to player performance you can't always trust what seems obvious. For instance, place the following players in order of best defense: Edgar Renteria, Derek Jeter, and David Eckstein. Without consulting numbers, most fans' first instinct is to place them Jeter-Renteria-Eckstein. However, before last season, at least one reputable source of statistical knowledge (Baseball Prospectus) ranked them Eckstein-Renteria-Jeter, because no matter how pathetic Eckstein looks taking a crow hop on throws to first, he gets to more balls and creates more outs than the other two. Our eyes and instincts lie. Jeter is clearly the worst defensive shortstop among the three and Eckstein is likely the best.
That's part of why I turn to numbers before I turn to anything else in these types of discussions.
by David A. Arnott on Dec 13, 2005 11:02 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Power
However, the question was who had more "power" Mueller or Feliz. If you accept "power" to mean home runs then there is no question who has the most "power." Perhaps, I missed some evolution in the meaning of the word, but I've always known the question of whether a player could hit for power (as opposed to hitting for average) to mean how often a player could hit the ball over the fence. In that regard, Pedro does it about every 25 at bats, while Billy does it every 50. That's a big difference.
Now if we want to evaluate the value of the two players, I would say it is not just a straight forward evaluation of their respective talents, but also what those talents bring to the needs of the Giants. I would submit there isn't enough difference in the defensive capabilities of the two players to make a choice, but when it comes to the power needs of the club, Pedro comes out on top. If I just made an evaluation of who is the more accomplished player overall then I would give the nod to Mueller. His plus .290 averages, especially his .326 season in Boston are impressive.
Last, let me say I don't think any evaluation of a baseball player can start without watching him play. If you haven't seen Sheffield turn on a ball then you don't really know what bat speed is all about. If you haven't seen the incredible range Ozzie Smith had you don't know what range means (and can mistake someone like Rich Aurilia as anything other than a mediocre defender,) If you haven't witness a Clemente, a Jackson, or a Mays throw a seed into the plate you don't know what a great outfield arm really is. Stats are adjuncts to watching and learning what is quality play, not a substitute for it. I'm all for using stats to help describe baseball, but I don't think one should make the mistake of believing they accurately capture it.
Re: Power
As for your final paragraph, yes, it's silly to not watch the game at all and then try to explain it. However, I think what you're talking about is player evaluation through judgment of execution and physical skill, aka judging of tools, and that isn't nearly as good a predictor of production as a player's statistical trends. Bat speed doesn't matter if the guy doesn't actually get hits. A tremendous arm doesn't matter if the guy can't judge fly balls. What matters is production, not how the guy does it. Ugliest stance and swing of all time belonged to Willie McGee, who was a damn good hitter. Deion Sanders is one of the greatest athletes of a generation... and a lousy baseball player.
There's an analogy I've wanted to try out for a while, and it goes something like this: There are two life insurance salesmen. One goes about his job by paying close attention to everyone he meets, finding out about their basic habits and lifestyles, and making mental notes about the things that happen to them over time. He also does extensive interviews with various people to find out information about their health and wellness. The other life insurance salesman relies on his actuarial tables to do his work. Which one would you rather hire for your insurance company? I'd rather hire the guy who uses tables, but I'd want him to pay attention to the habits and lifestyles of everyone he meets, too. I'd want him to know what his actuarial tables MEAN. But he still turns to the statistics, first.
by David A. Arnott on Dec 14, 2005 2:00 AM PST up reply actions
All this number crap freaks me out...
by rod beck on Dec 14, 2005 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
Devil's Advocate
Feliz
- .268 (career high)
- .209
- .172
Mueller
- .214 (career high)
- .163
- .135
Mueller's comparable slugging percentage is due to a whole lot of singles and a fair amount of doubles. That's okay with me... those hits are what make him a clearly better hitter than Feliz. But it's not a stretch (and in some ways, it's common sense) to say that Feliz is more of a power hitter than Mueller.
Re: Devil's Advocate
by David A. Arnott on Dec 13, 2005 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
To clarify
So I want Mueller or Nomar signed and Feliz trade for a 5th starter.
by Nick Schulte on Dec 14, 2005 7:28 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 13, 2005 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
I would love to get Nomar, small base ($1-2M), big jump at 100 games (+2M), $1M for every 10 games after that. Stick him at 3B, trade Feliz for best offer, whether starting pitcher, lefty 1B, or prospects, try to flip Alfonzo for Matsui or Finley, be sure to get a legit #5, fill the rest of the roster, then let's rumble.
by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Dec 13, 2005 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Matsui
I would think (well, hope) that Matsui could do a little better with another year of experience against U.S. pitching and without the title of Most Hated Met. The odds are against him ever being a great hitter in the states, but, man, that .332/.389/.617 season in Japan was only three years ago.
Re: Matsui
Throw in the "He's not Edgardo" factor, and I almost get excited about him.
Re: Billy Ball
The way I see it, the sooner we trade Alfonzo for whomever, the sooner we don't have to see his sorry performance anymore.
I did say Finley or Matsui. I see the pluses of either. Finley is a lefty bat, with some power, can play all three OF positions if necessary, better defense probably than our 3 starting OF, and if any of the olders go down or sits, there's a chance he'll replace them without much of a dropoff. And he's an improvement over Ellison.
Matsui is the utility MI we still need. Vizquel isn't getting younger either and we all saw how his hitting faded after April, basically, so give Matsui regular starts there, the drop in offense is probably not that great. Durham still needs to prove he can play a full season, even last year's was short, it only looked good in comparison with his previous two years - Matsui will get AB probably there as well, though we'll have a dropoff, hopefully, as the other poster noted, he can figure out his power hitting while here. Plus he still has his speed, so that'll be on the bench to use as well. And he could probably play 3B OK as well. Plus getting Matsui saves the budget money, trading useless Alfonzo for useful MI for no additional cost, whereas probably will have to pay $500K-$1M for a FA to take that spot. And as bad as he has hit, it is still better than what Neifi hit for us.
So either way we fix up a needed spot on the bench whereas Alfonzo is just there because we have to use him, he doesn't add anything to the bench other than around 250 pounds of pressure when he sits on it.
Maybe it was just an off year but I'm getting the impression that he's not as mentally confident about his abilities as other players are and that Felipe's frequent benchings have played with his confidence. Given how poorly he played last year, is he hitting again in the Winter Leagues? He did it last year to get him ready for the season, but he left it all in Spring Training and the first two weeks of the season. Maybe he'll do better staying home AND WORKING OUT ON HIS CONDITIONING, but I'm betting after three sorry years that he's at home just eatting his sorrows away, to prop up his sagging confidence.
This is where Dusty shined, playing his "guys", showing confidence in them no matter what; we all saw what that got us when he played Snow over Gallaraga when Big Cat was hitting like a lion and Snow was hitting like a kitten. At least play the hot hand in Andres then once he's spent, go to Snow.
by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Dec 14, 2005 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Of course, from Nomar's perspective, that's a bigger gamble. If he signs a 1-yr. deal and then is injured or struggles offensively, next off-season he doesn't get any big contracts (assuming Tom Hicks is still taking his medications). So maybe he'd prefer to do a more modest multi-year deal now...but will anybody be desperate enough to agree to that? And would it be in a location Nomar really wants to go to? I think he gambles on a 1-yr. deal. Maybe Barry is the enticement to sway him here.
If, then, we have Nomar signed and Feliz not yet on a farm "where he can run around and play with other Felizes all day", then swapping Fonzie for Kaz Matsui sounds good to me. Both have lousy ($) contracts that end after 2006 (I'm too lazy to research that, but I think I read that somewhere), so I'd rather have the backup at middle-infield for a year than only at 3B. And maybe, just maybe, Matsui relaxes this year and does great. Little risk, small chance of big reward...and we're already writing those big checks to somebody, we just change the name.
And even if we don't get Nomar for 3B, I'd still consider swapping Fonzie for Matsui, just on the "change of scenery" philosophy.
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2005 3:42 PM PST reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Sure, he's not a poor man by any stretch, but even Bob Hope was worried about money to his death and he's been wealthy since Methuselah walked the earth.
If he were rational like us, he would grab the biggest guaranteed offer that he can get and bless the owner, because there's no guarantee that he's getting healthy suddenly and get another $60M contract.
But most ballplayers don't think that way (witness Durham and Alfonzo). I'm going to be healthy next season and all I have to do is "be me", the same me who succeeded all those years doing what I've always done, it was good for me then, it must be good for me now, so all I need is one year to prove I'm back and I'm golden again.
It's the same kind of drive that gets Greg Brady to do all those Time-Life commercials for Golden Oldies music and Danny Partridge just to do all the crazy things he does to get attention, any attention. (I know, that's not their real names but hopefully you get my point)
I think if he asked for and held out for a multi-year type of contract, he will find some sucker to do that for him, though obviously it would be filled with all sorts of games played type of incentives. I think he wants a man's man type of contract: straight cash, none of this games played crap.
So he's not going to take the potentially biggest contract he can get, he's going to take a one year "prove I'm back and ready to rock and roll" contract, sure, blah-de-blah, games played, I'm making big money next year - $60M! Maybe $80M! Look at what these jokers are getting this year, the market's going crazy! I'm better than any of them! - type of thinking.
by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Dec 14, 2005 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Mueller
Winn
Bonds
Alou
Durham
Sweeny/Feliz
Matheny
Looking at that lineup, I'm not really that dissapointed. Vizquel can get on base with speed and Mueller can get on base with patience and hitting. Winn (hoping for 2005), Bonds, Alou, and Durham have the power/average to drive them in. Then Sweeny/Feliz has the power. And Matheny is just back there trying match his career average numbers. Would not be dissapointed in the least bit. To me it sounds better than having a Feliz and Sweeny starters.
The Giants' roster...
Re: Billy Ball
Winn
Vizquel
Garciaparra
Bonds
Alou
Durham
Niekro/Feliz
Matheny
Re: Billy Ball
Henderson
Mays
Ruth
Aaron
Bonds
Gehrig
Robinson
Wagner
Bench
Of course 3 of 'em are dead, but they still would hit better than some of the mopes in the lineup last season
by E Ticket on Dec 13, 2005 6:55 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
A more realistic lineup is:
Winn
Vizquel
Durham
Bonds
Alou
Feliz
Niekro
Matheny
Against the western division they may play as well as the '27 Yankees. In the playoffs it's another question altogether.
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
P - Ruth
C - Bench
1B - Gehrig
2B - Aaron (played there sometimes when starting career, 43 games total)
3B - Frank Robinson (played there 13 games!)
SS - Honus Wagner
LF - Bonds (I assume you mean Barry and not Bobby, else it would solve this OF mess)
CF - Mays
RF - Henderson (I was going to play Mays in RF because Ricky, from what I recall, didn't have much of an arm, but I would rather have Willie in CF)
by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Dec 14, 2005 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
But Billy Mueller was one of those really good Giants. Kinda like J.T.: a good clubhouse guy and a smart ballplayer. Mueller isn't one of the guys I would necessarily want up in a big situation, but with Pedro up with less than two out, three numbers come to mind: 6-4-3.
by zachls on Dec 13, 2005 4:19 PM PST reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
As to Feliz in the clutch, remember Pedro did drive in 80 runs so he did come through in some of those situations. The player I worry about is Niekro, not Feliz.
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
I'm hoping to get them ready by the end of Morris' contract.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 13, 2005 8:13 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
via mlb.com:
"SS Nomar Garciaparra, Cubs
Dec. 13 -- With the Cubs effectively ending ties with Garciaparra by declining to offer him arbitration, the New York Post reports that an offer has been made by the Yankees to Nomar Garciaparra, though GM Brian Cashman and agent Arn Tellem refused to confirm or deny According to one person with knowledge of the situation, Tellem has been shopping Garciaparra around as a multi-position player, including an outfielder. The New York Daily News reported previously that the Orioles have made an offer of one-year, $4 million to bring the former shortstop in as their DH, while the Blue Jays are backing off."
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051108&content_id=1266287&vkey=news_mlb _nd&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
I know, I know the Post is the essence of reliability. Still it would just be like the Yankees to spend all that money to bring Garciaparra on board as a FIRST BASEMAN.
Re: Billy Ball
ONE YEAR FOUR MILLION!!!!! for NOMAR!!!!! why in god's name are we not hearing rumors about the Giants being in on this??????
T-shirts at the end of Morris' contract
by FavoriteSpring on Dec 14, 2005 7:38 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Billy Ball
Re: Billy Ball
by knowitall55 on Dec 13, 2005 9:26 PM PST reply actions
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