Welcome to Morris Valley

I'm sure Sabean will still sign or trade for some castoff #5 starter. Let's hope that ends up being more Hermanson than Franklyn.

So dealing his sinker and his new Slider-Cutter (Slutter??) out of St. Louis could make him a true premium pitcher for us.  If he can throw like he did last year then his true value is probably about $7-8 a year, so we didn't get off too bad.  

All bets are off if the doctors find cottage cheese in his shoulder.  In that case, I guess Sabes is going to have to start returning Scott Boras' phone calls.  

"Um... that Porn Valley logo you keep seeing on my screen is from a, um... baseball site! That's right... a baseball site!"

I wouldn't say that we are getting ripped off, as some have put it.  His stats last year was still good overall, but we are certainly at risk for overpaying slightly for average results and definitely at risk of having another Robb Nen situation of a pitcher lost for the season with nothing to show for $9M - he's been seriously injured twice during his healthiest years, his 20's, there's no reason to believe that he'll miraculously become healthy in his 30's.  

However, his risk is no worse than when we signed Schmidt to his contract.  Schmidt only had that beautiful half season with us on his record as a starting pitcher, he was pretty ordinary previously plus frequently injured.  Both will have the injury Sword of Damocles hanging over them for the rest of their careers:  so will we get domination or will we get injury marred seasons?  Hopefully, their risks will "negate" each other, like risky stocks in a portfolio, and we get one dominating season from one and we'll see from the other.  That plus Lowry and Cain should be enough to get us to the divisional title.

This is also no worse than the gamble the Giants took with Bonds' $95M contract.  How many of you thought Bonds would be hitting well at 41-42?  Even 40 was questionable, the history of baseball said that it was unlikely.  And we would have been paying $20M to Bonds for that potential slop.  Age and injury were huge question marks.  I'm more than glad most of it worked until 2005 - I assume we all agree that his injury put a wrench into the works in 2005's season.

I could have went either way with Morris, signing or passing.  If we are going to blow away a big chunk of money anyway on a starting pitcher, I preferred Morris over the choices who were in our price range (under $10M per year) as most of his "substitute goods" are journeymen mediocre pitchers whereas he actually had pitched well before.  I didn't consider any of Boras's stable of pitchers to be substitute goods because he somehow snookers teams to overpay for his clients, both in years and dollars, and I assume $10M is the where the bar is set for the limboing set.

I recently became of the persuasion that it probably is better to dip into the non-tender market and find, say, 4 cheap mediocre starters and let them battle Hennessey for the last two spots in the rotation.  But now that it looks like Morris will be signed by the Giants, they could always do that for the last spot.

For those who want to compare Morris' uninspiring last two seasons to Tomko, it's hard to judge his results for 2004-5 because of his injury. I'm not as convinced about the second half "collapse" that most nay-sayers have been pointing at and holding their noses. In July he had a 4.36 ERA and in September, he had a 4.08 ERA, those hardly connote a collapse; it was in August where he stunk and even then it was a 4.93 ERA, which, while not great, is certainly an acceptable result for a good starter, he can't be great every month.

This is similar to what happened to Tomko in 2004, only in reverse.  In that case, everyone was wowed by his dominating post-ASG stats but when I dug into them, he had two average months sandwiching a dominating one month.  Which was real and which was illusion for Tomko, the two average months or the great one month?  Same for Morris.

He was also "homeriffic" those last three months vs. the first three, 6 homers in first 3 months vs. 13 homers in last 3 months. Looking at the stats, I don't know how significant or not it is, but 7 of those 13 homers were in games against Chicago, else he was about on par with the first half of the year.

His K's also went down in the last two months but it was pretty good the first 4 months of the season. As well, his K/W ratio was extremely good (>2.0) until his final month.

Also on a positive note, he pitched really well his last two games of the season, 6.0 IP, 1 hit/3 BB, 1R/0ER, 4 K then 6.0 IP, 5 hits/1 BB, 2 R/ER, 1 HR, 3 K; except for his K total, they were two of his best games pitched in the post-ASG period.  Essentially his tailspin began soon after that long layoff between starts because of the ASG, 9 days between starts.  He had an OK but short start, then a string of 5 bad starts, killing August, before righting himself enough for so-so starts until those final two games.

So, he looked pretty much like the Morris of old until the final two months. The question is whether the decline was due to fatigue or a new or recurring injury or even just damn random luck, maybe it was just one of those stretches when he couldn't strike anyone out and everything guys were hitting were falling in for hits.  

Don't know, but it looks like we will have front row seats to see what happens.

I wouldn't have been too dissapointed with Tomko, but its nice they will spend a little money this off-season, even if it is risky.  But at least Tomko would have taken the ball even if his arm had fallen off, just let Stan Conte duct tape it to the shoulder.  

I don't mind letting Correia and Hennessey battle for the fifth spot.  I still think Correia has some talent, just needs to gain some command.  I watched him pitch in Atlanta last August, and he struck out seven of the first nine guys he faced.  If they can't manage it, then go find someone down the stretch.  

Does anyone agree that Juan Encarnacian would be a great fit for our outfield?  He has been the ugly step child of a lot of outfields the last few years with the Marlins and Reds.  The fourth outfielder is a virtual lock to recieve 70 starts on this team, and he plays right field, which means when he is in, Alou isn't there.  Him and Wynn covering that gap half of the time makes me feel a whole lot better than what we have.  I just think it makes some sense, and if we sign him for two years and he ends up being a starter in right in '07, it wouldn't hurt my feelings either, and he'll only be 31 by next spring.  

Washburn is still available and he would balance the rotation in a nice way. Then they can sign Nomar to play third and bat in front of Barry. Next, how about Burnitz to provide left-handed pop off the Bench? Followed by ...? Is it all dreaming? Of course, but if they're serious about a run for the Series while Bonds is on the team, it will take more than Morris to do so.

I know, I know, they will bust their budget overpaying free agents trying to grasp the brass ring! I don't care!!! Time to pony up and pay what's necessary to bring a World Series win to San Francisco. The window is closing.

The Uma Thurman analogy is bizarre yet perfect ....

I think we are overpaying Morris, and this team still has alot of question marks, and more than a few holes to fill.

Ill get excited if Morris wins at least 17 games, and can keep his era under 4.

If not, its another busted signing, and another stiff we are stuck with for the next 3 years.  

And if the free agent market for starting pitchers is tight you can bet many pounds of flesh are going to be extracted in trades.