Is Walker and/or Accardo trade bait now?

2 years/ $4M

2006 - $1M
2007 - $2M
2008 - $1M (Deffered)

So with all of thier young bullpen arms, they'll need a 40 yr old Worrell around in '07?

2006 $1.5MM
2007 $2.0MM

$500k signing bonus.

The lead of the wire story doesn't sound very encouraging, though:

"Tim Worrell will attempt to resurrect his floundering career with the San Francisco Giants..."

Yikes.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=MLB&storyid=17941

I think it is a great deal and cheap (based on existing market).

Worrell is a type A but giants can't lose the 10th pick though.

1.  38 yo pitcher-2year contract!  How many more 40 yo players do we need on this team anyway?
2.  Dumping draft choices again.  There is no reason on God's green earth why this had to be done before the arbitration deadline except Sabean is obviously dumping draft choices again.  We lose a second rounder here.
3.  This just proves that Sabean has no #$%& plan!  He's just treading water trying not to drown until Barry retires and then what?  We should already be seeing the beginnings of the future and we're getting more of the past!

In a nutshell, this to me enshrines everything that is wrong with the Giants philosophy - they would rather pay market value for enshrined mediocrity, then overpay for genuine top level talent (a Vlad). Given that the talent structure in baseball is pyramidal, this is wishful at best and blindly ignorant at worst.

I guess I'm bitter - this is an awful sign of any evolution of Sabean, and suggests that the things we attribute to Colletti (the Neifi'ness, the JC contract, the frigging Matheny signing) is simply Brian. That does not bode well.

Suck it, Bill James.

-D

 The Mets' talks with the Orioles about a Kris Benson trade have cooled, according to one American League team executive. But the Mets were still listening to clubs such as the Giants and Royals believed to be in the hunt, according to the executive.
-- New York Post

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/scorecard/12/02/truth.rumors.mlb/index.html

Not that I want Kris, but Ana might be nice to have around.  He is a pitcher, might not be too bad if you give up Edgardo.  The money would even out this season, and you could sign another starter on the market like Morris.  That would give us a decent rotation.  I don't mind Benson/Morris as 3-4 starters and Cain as a fifth for his first full season.

Schmidt
Lowry
Benson
Morris
Cain

Not too Shabby.

This also makes it easier to trade Hawkins or Benitez and free up salary, although I doubt Sabean does that.

As for Inherited Runners here are Worrell's stats the last few years:

YR        TM    GR    IP    INB    INS    INR    BQB    BQS    BQR    RA    FRA
2005    ARI    32    31.7    17    8      -0.3     7         0        1.6    3.69    4.13
2005    PHI    19    17        5    2       -1.2     6         2        0.4    9.00    9.11
2004    PHI    77    78.3    28    9       2.7      6         2        0.8    4.14    3.77
2003    SFN    76    78.3    28    14    -1.2    12         1        3.2    4.02    4.33
2002    SFN    79    71.7    41    14     4.8    21         7        4.1    2.64    2.37
2001    SFN    73    78.3    43    20    -1.3    28         9        4.9    3.79    3.98

INB = Inherited Baserunners
INS = Inherited Runners who Scored
INR = Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever's appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.

BQB = Bequeathed Baserunners
BQS = Bequeathed Runners who Scored
BQR = Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.

FRA = "Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included

It looks like he was below average with inherited runners in 2001, 2003, and 2005 but well above average in 2002 and 2004.  He has been relatively lucky with runners that he has left on base for other relievers.  All in all he looks like a good bet for 75 IP of 4.00 FRA, which isn't bad for $2M in this market.  Losing the draft pick was pointless and we have more pressing needs but I don't think this move by itself is that bad (other than the draft pick).  It just depends on what else is done.

At $10M budget left to spend, the money spent on Worrell wouldn't really affect the Giants plans:  they weren't planning on bringing in a high paid player as some of us were hoping.  They are still looking for an upgrade at starter - most accounts note that the Giants are one of the more interested parties in signing Morris.  They still need their lefty 1B/OF and backup catcher and utility MI and if they are creative enough with the starter in starting low in 2006, they can fit those three into the puzzle that is their payroll.

Lastly, the draft pick that was lost:  I understand the consternation over a lost first round pick (I don't agree but I understand the symbology of it), but the 2nd round draft pick is nothing to bring on such sturm und drang.  From my data on the drafts from 1986 to 2003, the odds were 30 to 1 that you pick up a significant (good or star player) player when picking from 51st to 60th overall (last two drafts, the 10th pick of the second round were the 51st and 58th pick overall).  

So it is overwhelmingly likely that the pick is useless:  83.3% of the players picked from 51 to 60th overall either never made the majors or got in no more than about half a season of games in the majors.  And another 5.0% played at least half a season's worth of games but never made it to arbitration, which means they didn't really play that well.  So nearly 90% (88.3%) of the picks never amounted to much of anything.

In addition, most of the remaining, 8.3%, became a useful player, a player who made arbitration and perhaps have had a long career but never had flashy stats, like a Michael Tucker, which is valuable but nothing to get to stirred up about.  At least not to the point of ripping Sabean a new one.

So, only 3.3% became a good or star player.  Meaning that if you had 30 years of drafting in the 10th spot of the 2nd round, you would pick up 1 good or star player and 2-3 useful players, with the remaining 26-27 players doing basically nothing worthwhile for you.  I don't think that's anything to get upset over.  And the $650K they saved goes towards paying Worrell so that savings go into getting a better option at starting pitcher or otherwise.

I'm just disappointed that Sabean does not appear to be holding to the statement attributed to the team that they would not punt any draft picks this season.  But as someone noted, it might not have been a direct quote from him so in that case, I'm not so crushed, it's just that he keeps most information close to his vest that if we cannot even hold him to what he actually says, then that's even less info.