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DePosed

The only extreme position in this life worth taking is that all extremists are idiots. Politics. Religion. Science fiction nerds. Statheads. Especially statheads. The idea that baseball is something that can be figured out using statistics is laughable. As if some guy with an internet account and an abacus could go to Vegas, cleaning the house out every season with statistical modeling. As if there's no use for the guy who can tell a two-seamer from a four-seamer by sound alone.

Except that's not a real position. Almost any statistically inclined fellow scurrying around these parts doesn't believe that. Scouting is important. Statistics are important. I'm not exactly Newton dropping Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica here; this is obvious, obvious stuff. The boogeyman of the traditional baseball world -- the bespectacled computer nerd who assembles a roster using only his proprietary statistic MqV3 -- is a caricature. The reality is a guy like Mark Shapiro, who has a toe in each wading pool. The reality is a guy like Billy Beane, who doesn't claim to have baseball figured out, is constantly looking to refine his statistics, and still retains a cadre of respected baseball lifers to bounce his opinions off.

If there was a guy to come close to the stereotype, it was the recently junked general manager of the Dodgers. In Moneyball, Paul DePodesta comes off as a hard-line stat nerd, eager to fire scouts and put his Tandy 3000 in charge of amateur drafting. It isn't a flattering portrait in retrospect. He claimed Brant Colamarino might have been the best hitter in college when the A's drafted him. That didn't work out. Lots of things don't work out in the baseball world, but few have a bestselling author hanging around as they transpire.

So, was DePodesta an inscrutable extremist, ready to run the Dodgers into the ground with his number crunching? Uh, I don't know. And neither do you. Most importantly, neither do the Dodgers. The guy wasn't even on the job for two full years. He pulled in players that helped Mordor's finest, and pulled in players that didn't work out so well. His team endured injury after injury, and the players he allowed to leave as free agents would have only made things worse had they stayed. In theory, he liked hitters who made fewer outs than other hitters, and that gives him a leg up on other GMs. That's about the best read we were afforded before he was fired.

If this is a personality issue, there's nothing to say. If DePodesta was some King Midas of alienation, ticking off every person he came in contact with, then there might be a reason for the quick boot. However, this is likely a baseball decision, with the heckling of the media and old-school types becoming too much for Dodger ownership to ignore. Tommy Lasorda doesn't seem like the type to appreciate the finer points of statistical analysis, and his opinion still counts for something, apparently. The phrase "on a short leash" is woefully inadequate in this case; it seems like the Dodgers wanted to slip out the back door as DePodesta showered that first morning after he was hired.

It's hard to know what this means for the Giants. The enlightened part of me is tap dancing around, glad the Dodgers got rid of a statistically bent GM. The realist in me understands the latest variety of World Champion was built by Kenny Williams, who was the anti-DePodesta in a lot of ways. Idiots have built some pretty fine teams, not to necessarily tar Williams with that brush. Even if the Dodgers hired a Lasorda clone, hell bent on scouring the world for the next Jeff Shaw, there would still be a chance for them to humiliate the Giants. But all things being equal: I was bummed when the Dodgers hired DePodesta, and I'm happy to see him go. I almost wish there were some evidence to support those opinions. Almost.

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Re: DePosed
Yup.

I'm officialy starting of the "Tommy Lasorda" for GM campaign. Heck, trade them Felipe ALou as well.

by Aadik on Oct 29, 2005 5:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: DePosed
I don't know nor particularly care about Paul DePodesta as a baseball man; I certainly loathe the Dodgers.  What bothers me about DePodesta is that media hacks started to destroy him before he even started.  Then, in effect, he wasn't give a chance to do anything.  Two years?  He made some good moves and some bad moves...it's not like he dumped some guy named Konerko to keep some worthless guy named Karros.

Watch because we'll all be reading about how DePodesta didn't focus on "team chemistry" and signed "bad guys" and made 'all these" errors in his short tenure.  Oh woe is me!  Good riddance to that franchise and I hope that baseball people and players begin to (if they haven't already) say, "I'm not going there."

by Kent @ McCovey Chronicles on Oct 29, 2005 7:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Confusion to the Enemy
Anything that leads to disruption in the land of Mordor and has the potential to give Lasorda heartburn works for me.  

by APGiantsFan on Oct 29, 2005 8:03 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: DePosed
Dodgers have fired DePodesta, only 2 years into the 5-year DePodesta plan.   I was worried that the Dodgers would become a stat-oriented organization but with this move, as with most human moves, it could swing the pendulum towards the other way.  Which, based on recent drafts, does not seem like a bad idea, they have had a number of highly regarded drafts, though, so far, high only in potential and not in results thus far.

The speculation in the MLB article suggests that Lasorda might have led to the coup d'etat and that his influence could lead McCourt to hire Pat Gillick as GM and Bobby Valentine, Lasorda's longtime protege, as manager.   Gillick would not fit into the non-saber mode;  in an interview I read, he looks like he tries to be inclusive of both stats and scouting.  He has been successful everywhere he has gone, somehow improving Seattle even while letting go of A-Rod, Junior, and The Big Unit, and previously leading Toronto to World Series victories.  So he could prove to be a huge improvement for the Dodgers, both in current ability and influencing their future directions.

At minimum, this is good in that the Dodgers will be paying for 2 GM salaries over the next three seasons when the owner is in hock to his neck after buying the Dodgers;  MLB does not look too kindly on a lot of debt, so this could mean less budget for the Dodgers in their player payroll budget (money gotta come out of somewhere).   In addition, any GM coming in will have to question Tommy influence over McCourt and wonder if the Sword of Damocles hangs over him.   Most people do not work well having to watch their back and wonder if their every move is questioned, even someone hand-picked by the person, unless they are close personal friends - as far as I can tell Gillick and Lasorda are not that close.  Furthermore, if Gillick and Valentine are the picks, they will not be cheap either, perhaps soaking up $5M+ together that would otherwise be used for player payroll (again, assuming he is severely debt-ridden, he must handle all changes in payroll within his revenues).

Perhaps the best thing is that this is a sign that McCourt is a highly impatient novice owner with a little George Steinbrenner in him.  DePodesta had one bad year marred by a lot of injuries.  Of course, one could say that signing Drew is kind of inviting that, but I digress.  He had a beauty of a year in 2004, with the Dodgers winning their first division title in many years, a situation that used to be reverse with the Giants.   But it was helped by contract year drives, especially by Adrian Beltre.  He did the right thing by not re-signing him but the wrong thing by signing Drew.   But I thought he hasn't done anything egregriously wrong to warrant a firing.  Therefore, this was a move because of a difference in opinion over how the team is general managed.  And perhaps this is a sign that McCourt is one of those guys who think he knows it all.

However, this could work out well for the Dodgers.  Gillick is well respected and has worked miracles everywhere he has gone, even in Baltimore where he admitted that he didn't work very well with a micro-managing owner;  hopefully McCourt proves to be a hands-on owner, whether it's Gillick or someone else hired as GM.  Valentine did very well as manager for the Mets, with a .534 winning percentage (which works out to averaging an 87+ win season over his 6 full seasons with them).

Obviously you know which way I want it to go.

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Oct 29, 2005 9:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: DePosed
About Gillick, I have reservations about his ability to manage the resources of a loaded farm system. The situation LA is currently in reminds me of the Mariners' farm system three or four years ago, when they were absolutely stocked with premium pitching prospects.

Gillick refused to use any of them as trade bait to shore up a contending team. As a result, the Mariners never really got over the hump and the franchise watched their prized pitching prospects wither on the vine.

Of course, one can never predict injuries, but that's on the individual level. One can and should predict lots of attrition to pitching prospects, because that's what they do, on the macro level (Edwin Jackson is also evidence of this, in LA's system). TNSTAAP is extreme, but Gillick's ignorance of that principle or unwillingness to reasonably apply it, and cash in some of those lottery tickets for proven talent, was and probably still is a major weakness of his. And it will be highly relevant if he became GM of the Dodgers.

"Offerman is a guy who can clearly still hit. His numbers don't indicate that this year." -Steve Lyons, FOX baseball announcer

by Minstrel on Oct 30, 2005 12:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Gillick
is also largely responsible for the moves that brought the 2004-2005 mariners low.
Did you ever go to sleep with Bo Derek and wake up with Bo Diddley?

by kenshin1 on Oct 30, 2005 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: DePosed
"At minimum, this is good in that the Dodgers will be paying for 2 GM salaries over the next three seasons when the owner is in hock to his neck after buying the Dodgers;  MLB does not look too kindly on a lot of debt, so this could mean less budget for the Dodgers in their player payroll budget (money gotta come out of somewhere)."

Making their ball dudes keep the ball (as opposed to giving it to a fan) isn't enough?

www.waitingfortbg.com (under contstruction)

by Goofus on Oct 30, 2005 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: DePosed
Silly move by the Dodgers that, based on very early returns (and those are the only returns we'll ever get now), should help every other team in the division including San Francisco.

The stereotype of "laptop DePodesta" was clearly overstated. He didn't fire scouts willy-nilly, nor did he trade away highly-touted toolsy Dodgers prospects.

Nearly all the moves he made were pretty reasoned and canny. I didn't really understand the Derek Lowe signing, but it worked out reasonably well. The LoDuca/Mota/Encarnacion trade for Choi/Penny seems pretty clearly a win for LA, despite the LA media's irrational hatred of Choi. Letting Steve Finley walk was clearly a smart move. Getting rid of Green's absurd salary was a nice bit of magic. JD Drew was obviously injury-prone, so his losing time to injury was not unexpected, but the nature of his injury was flukish and he missed far more time than even his history predicted (he's played an average of 114 games per season and only got into abour 74 for LA).

But nothing sums up the LA media's idiocy and hypocrisy more than the case of Adrian Beltre. After his career year in 2004, the LA media and fans fell head-over-heels in love with him, despite the unlikelyhood that this was Beltre's new level of ability. DePodesta clearly felt that Beltre was unlikely to justify a huge salary and let him walk. The media flayed him for it, claiming he let a homegrown "superstar" walk. What happened? Adrian Beltre failed to justify a huge salary. So DePodesta was right...right? Nope. Amazingly, the LA media [i]continues[/i] to hate DePodesta for letting Beltre go, insisting he would have remained great [i]had he remained a Dodger[/i]. Constantly shifting the debate to unproveables in order to avoid admitting being wrong pretty well says all one needs to know about how seriously to take the opinions of such writers.

And yet, McCourt treated them like wise, trusted advisors and let them berate him into firing a guy who had pretty much been right again and again.

The Giants dodged a bullet. The specter of a huge payroll team with a great farm system run efficiently and creatively conjured the possibility of a division dynasty. That possibility is, thankfully, gone now.

"Offerman is a guy who can clearly still hit. His numbers don't indicate that this year." -Steve Lyons, FOX baseball announcer

by Minstrel on Oct 30, 2005 12:29 PM PST reply actions  

Re: DePosed
I absolutely see it in the same way.  It's definitely a good thing that he's gone, because the Dodgers that he was going to construct were going to be pretty good.

Oh, and another thing, Fat Tommy is an idiot and a jerk and has always been one.  When I read that he "swore to God" that he didn't have anything to do with DePodesta's firing, I knew immediately that he did.  

Go Dino-ball.  The Giants should be able to reap a year or two of rewards from this.  I hope that they and every other NL and AL West team openly courts free agents and front office people by showing evidence of what idiots the Dodgers are.

I personally think that Pat Gillick is a retrograde GM.  

by Kent @ McCovey Chronicles on Oct 30, 2005 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: DePosed
The other benefit of this is that perhaps useful players like Hee Seop Choi are now available for a song. Choi's entire reputation in LA is based on his post-trade performance in 2004. Before that, he had a great track record in the minors and majors. This year, he had something of a bounce-back season, posting an .800 OPS in an extreme pitcher's park (though he was maddeningly up and down). His numbers against lefties also improved.

Choi is a good young hitter, with plate patience and a lot of power. He also seems like a decent prospect for a break-out season. And the LA media hates him and considers him a symbol of all that is evil about DePodesta.

I'm thinking he'll be available for haul-away costs.

"Offerman is a guy who can clearly still hit. His numbers don't indicate that this year." -Steve Lyons, FOX baseball announcer

by Minstrel on Oct 30, 2005 1:19 PM PST reply actions  

Choi
Fantastic call on Choi. Offer Correia, and suddenly we've got Niekro's platoon partner.

by David A. Arnott on Oct 30, 2005 4:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: DePosed
I've advocated for Choi in the past, but I admit he's a risk, especially if counted to provide middle of the order power, which the G's desperately need. Good pitchers can get him out by throwing fastballs in on his hands. Everyone knows this and he hasn't shown the ability to adjust.
"¡Que bochinche!" - La Comay

by leftymalo on Oct 30, 2005 11:04 PM PST reply actions  

Re: DePosed
I dunno, I rather enjoyed watching him blow up the NL West champions from 2004 and leave us with a rusted hulk of a vessel to beat up on (we won the season series 10-9), or at the least, stay out of our way as we made a last-minute dash for the division title.

by eugene on Oct 31, 2005 8:47 AM PST reply actions  

Re: DePosed
I have to admit, I was having a more difficult time rooting against the Dogs when Depo was running it. The fact that this should set them back a year or two, and should lead to an inferior man leading the team for the next five years, and could very easily lead to Juan Encarnacion back in blue, doesn't bug me at all.
Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Oct 31, 2005 10:58 AM PST reply actions  

Theo Epstein as replacement?
I just read this article linked in the Baseball Musing blog:  http://www.sheriffsully.com/2005/11/01/a-few-bad-men/

It gives a great lowdown into the whole BoSox/Epstein mess, how each side was playing it.  I cannot believe that Boston would allow the GM who built their World Series winner to go over money;  BoSox fans must be beside themselves right now.  The author also speculated that perhaps Theo might get a 5 year/$10M contract with the Dodgers. (Yikes!?!?)

Could make sense, the owner is a Boston native, so he could be hoping the luck of the Boston's first W.S. championship in 3-4 generations would rub off on him via Theo.

I'm not sure exactly what to think of this, I don't know much other than he did GM the BoSox to the promise land.  So this would be a negative to me because I want the Dodgers down in the celler, where they belong, and Epstein could help improve them.  Whether that was fluke or plan or just $$$, though, I'm not really sure.

I would think that Lasorda would be against this and would advise against it because Epstein and DePodesta are cut from the same cloth.  But the Boston connection might do it for McCourt, loudmouth fat man whispering in his ear or no.  What do you all think of this possibility?

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Nov 1, 2005 9:23 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Theo Epstein as replacement?
I think that Fat Tommy is Fat.  And a loudmouth.
I blame Tomko.

by The Balls of Summer on Nov 1, 2005 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Theo Epstein as replacement?
I am not sure if this is a bad thing or not.  He really only has had 2 years on the job, and the Red Sox were pretty good before Theo took over.  Did he take them over the top?  Again, I don't know, but I would rather not have him trying for the Bitches down South.

by rod beck on Nov 4, 2005 8:23 AM PST up reply actions  

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